{ "symbol": "SAP.DE", "fx": { "cur": "EUR", "eurusd": 1.1196954250335693, "to_usd": 1.1196954250335693, "to_eur": 1.0 }, "analysis": { "levels": { "support": [ 178.8800048828125, 176.82000732421875, 172.16000366210938 ], "resistance": [ 216.64999389648438 ], "sma50": 192.20239990234376, "sma200": 165.4288500213623, "low52": 127.5, "high52": 229.9499969482422, "bb_lower": 184.86002048628293, "bb_mid": 203.32699890136718, "zones": [ { "name": "Агресивно натрупване", "rule": "MoS > +30%", "price_max": 229.70058162610877, "color": "g" }, { "name": "Натрупване (BUY)", "rule": "MoS ≥ +20%", "price_max": 262.5149504298386, "color": "g" }, { "name": "Задържане / DCA", "rule": "−10% ≤ MoS ≤ +10%", "price_max": 360.9580568410281, "price_min": 295.32931923356847, "color": "y" }, { "name": "Частична печалба", "rule": "цена > FV +25%", "price_min": 410.1796100466228, "color": "r" }, { "name": "Изход / хеджиране", "rule": "цена > FV +40%", "price_min": 459.40116325221754, "color": "r" } ] }, "strategies": [ { "key": "value", "name": "Стойностна (Value / Margin of Safety)", "description": "Купува се със защитен марж под справедливата цена и се държи до сближаване. Дълъг хоризонт, малко сделки.", "horizon_months": 24, "entry": 206.64999389648438, "stop": 154.98749542236328, "target": 328.14368803729826, "applicable": true, "status_reason": "Цената е под прага на защитния марж.", "trigger": 262.5149504298386, "stats": { "p_fill": 1.0, "p_target": 0.425, "p_stop": 0.473, "p_open": 0.102, "exp_return": 14.447438737135792, "kelly": 5.0, "rr": 2.3516805754501555 }, "risk": "Нисък–Среден" }, { "key": "trend", "name": "Тренд / Momentum (Trend Following)", "description": "Купува се в потвърден възходящ тренд, с плаващ stop на 2.5×ATR и цел 2R. Средносрочно, повече сделки, по-ниска успеваемост, по-висок коефициент печалба/загуба.", "horizon_months": 6, "entry": 192.20239990234376, "stop": 177.87371473001417, "target": 220.85977024700293, "applicable": true, "status_reason": "Златен кръст, цена над SMA200 и ADX > 20.", "trigger": null, "stats": { "p_fill": 0.733, "p_target": 0.31377899045020463, "p_stop": 0.6466575716234653, "p_open": 0.03956343792633015, "exp_return": -0.0817306307793582, "kelly": 0.0, "rr": 2.0 }, "risk": "Среден–Висок" }, { "key": "reversion", "name": "Контрариан / Mean Reversion (краткосрочен swing)", "description": "Купува се препродадена акция около подкрепа и се продава при връщане към средната. Кратък хоризонт, строг stop.", "horizon_months": 3, "entry": 184.86002048628293, "stop": 173.39707234841927, "target": 203.32699890136718, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Не е препродадена (RSI 58). Лимит вход при ~184.86.", "trigger": 184.86002048628293, "stats": { "p_fill": 0.4821666666666667, "p_target": 0.31282405807120633, "p_stop": 0.5772554441755963, "p_open": 0.10992049775319737, "exp_return": -0.4111405007613162, "kelly": 0.0, "rr": 1.6110147400986072 }, "risk": "Висок" }, { "key": "dca", "name": "Редовно натрупване (DCA) + доход", "description": "Равни месечни вноски за 12 месеца – изглажда входа и намалява риска от лош момент. Подходящо при несигурност.", "horizon_months": 12, "entry": 221.40527688974402, "stop": null, "target": null, "applicable": true, "status_reason": "Подходяща при всякакви условия.", "trigger": null, "risk": "Нисък–Среден", "stats": { "avg_cost": 221.40527688974402, "p_profit": 55.65, "exp_return": 5.553964725800142, "worst5": -31.583825825890454, "dividend_yield": 1.209775017584712, "tranches": 12 } } ], "scenarios": { "1": { "exp_price": 208.94533851011843, "exp_return": 1.1107402281288343, "p_profit": 52.025, "p_loss20": 2.0500000000000003, "p_gain30": 1.125, "var95": -16.187981321770508, "cvar95": -19.962273346332864, "annualized": 14.174068814636453 }, "3": { "exp_price": 214.68277761894007, "exp_return": 3.8871444276352163, "p_profit": 53.5625, "p_loss20": 10.75, "p_gain30": 10.7625, "var95": -25.457021695362243, "cvar95": -31.120927320561865, "annualized": 16.47889326013592 }, "6": { "exp_price": 222.1682552934309, "exp_return": 7.509441981750044, "p_profit": 55.00000000000001, "p_loss20": 17.5125, "p_gain30": 20.474999999999998, "var95": -34.83145612872266, "cvar95": -41.30957444065308, "annualized": 15.582801152272818 }, "12": { "exp_price": 240.19811408115328, "exp_return": 16.23427107453673, "p_profit": 57.975, "p_loss20": 22.525000000000002, "p_gain30": 31.2, "var95": -43.78427427582272, "cvar95": -52.223856158819245, "annualized": 16.23427107453672 }, "24": { "exp_price": 283.9882503841399, "exp_return": 37.42475624092976, "p_profit": 61.6, "p_loss20": 24.7375, "p_gain30": 43.262499999999996, "var95": -52.406160345783505, "cvar95": -61.58004093358207, "annualized": 17.22830555839736 }, "36": { "exp_price": 335.0720930001363, "exp_return": 62.14473888055447, "p_profit": 64.55, "p_loss20": 23.775, "p_gain30": 50.05, "var95": -58.01320312325954, "cvar95": -67.62028233677427, "annualized": 17.480996203628795 } }, "risk": { "ann_return": -1.6973572997107542, "vol": 35.79689323047609, "sharpe": -0.12004833134659156, "sortino": -0.16413874166676132, "max_drawdown": -54.22047345253662, "calmar": -0.03130473032841704, "var95_1m": -14.08552990430886, "cvar95_1m": -17.08057191141428, "beta": 0.708 }, "confidence": { "label": "средна", "why": "умерено разминаване между моделите (70%)." }, "narrative": [ { "kind": "val", "text": "Според ансамбъла от 4 модела акцията е дълбоко подценена (справедлива цена ≈ 328.14, MoS 37%). Увереност в оценката: средна – умерено разминаване между моделите (70%)." }, { "kind": "val", "text": "EV/EBITDA е 18.0, P/E 29.9, PEG 1.82." }, { "kind": "quality", "text": "ROIC е 16.8% срещу цена на капитала ≈ 6.1% – бизнесът създава стойност." }, { "kind": "quality", "text": "Оперативният марж е 27%, нетният 20%, FCF марж 23%." }, { "kind": "safety", "text": "Финансова устойчивост: Piotroski 8.0/9, Altman Z 7.8" }, { "kind": "safety", "text": "Нетният дълг е -0.2× EBITDA, лихвите са покрити 22×." }, { "kind": "growth", "text": "Приходите растат със 8% годишно (3 г.), печалбата на акция със 46%." }, { "kind": "tech", "text": "Технически: RSI 58, цената е +7.5% спрямо SMA50 и +24.9% спрямо SMA200, ADX 30." }, { "kind": "risk", "text": "Риск: годишна волатилност 36%, максимален спад за 2 г. -54%, VaR 95% за месец -14% (CVaR -17%)." } ], "verdict": { "score": 71.9, "action": "ИЗЧАКАЙТЕ по-добра цена", "tone": "y" }, "history": { "dates": [ "2024-11-06", "2024-11-07", "2024-11-08", 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"ok": false, "detail": "очаквана нетна +2.7% срещу пазарна ≈ 7.6% годишно → преимущество -4.9 п.п." } ], "passed": 3, "disqualifiers": [], "catalysts": [ { "key": "margin", "text": "Цикличен обрат / разширяване на оперативния марж", "directional": true } ], "tranches": [ { "n": 1, "alloc": 0.3, "price": 206.64999389648438, "trigger": "MoS ≥ 20%, катализатор, RSI(14) < 40", "goal": "Първоначална експозиция" }, { "n": 2, "alloc": 0.4, "price": 192.20239990234376, "trigger": "Тест на институционално ниво", "goal": "Сваля WAP към локалното дъно" }, { "n": 3, "alloc": 0.3, "price": 178.8800048828125, "trigger": "Капитулация – институционално ниво; VIX скок / фалшив негатив без промяна в тезата", "goal": "Максимален ефект върху средната цена" } ], "wap": { "all": 191.93963294038846, "t1_t2": 198.13921868587528, "t1": 206.64999389648438 }, "exits": { "tp1": 230.32755952846614, "tp1_pct": 20.0, "tp2": 278.3124677635633, "tp2_pct": 45.000000000000014, "stop": 153.5517063523108, "stop_pct": 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"p_loss": 36.620000000000005, "p_stop": 34.74, "p_t2": 73.88, "p_t3": 59.28, "p_tp1": 69.04, "p_tp2": 47.46, "worst5": -22.408425665192393, "cvar5": -23.25587934506536, "best95": 30.620421722226535, "invested_avg": 77.336 }, "best": true } ], "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2.0, "rec_pct": 10.0, "full_loss_pct": 20.0 }, "assumptions": { "commission": 0.1, "spread": 0.05, "fx": 0.0, "stop_slip": 0.3, "tax": 10.0, "market_expected": 7.6, "side_cost": 0.15 }, "edge": -4.903742154916675, "entry_needed": null, "steps": [ "Дори при по-ниска цена симулираната печалба остава под прага – акцията не пасва на този профил в момента.", "Изчакайте RSI(14) < 40 (сега 58) за Транш 1.", "Ако въпреки това влизате: не повече от 10% от капитала (риск 2%)." ], "note": "Стопът се избира от три варианта по най-добро съотношение очаквана нетна печалба / опашков риск (CVaR 5%). Нивата на Транш 2 и 3 са пропорционални на стопа, за да остават над него. Всички резултати са след такси, плъзгане и данък. 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