{ "symbol": "NVDA", "fx": { "cur": "USD", "eurusd": 1.1199462413787842, "to_usd": 1.0, "to_eur": 0.8929000009579777 }, "analysis": { "levels": { "support": [ 207.25, 199.33999633789062, 190.00999450683594 ], "resistance": [ 213.99000549316406, 214.38999938964844, 227.9199981689453 ], "sma50": 221.48680084228516, "sma200": 204.56870018005372, "low52": 164.27000427246094, "high52": 243.3699951171875, "bb_lower": 200.10103650896605, "bb_mid": 218.05800170898436, "zones": [ { "name": "Агресивно натрупване", "rule": "MoS > +30%", "price_max": 83.73309626872685, "color": "g" }, { "name": "Натрупване (BUY)", "rule": "MoS ≥ +20%", "price_max": 95.69496716425927, "color": "g" }, { "name": "Задържане / DCA", "rule": "−10% ≤ MoS ≤ +10%", "price_max": 131.5805798508565, "price_min": 107.65683805979168, "color": "y" }, { "name": "Частична печалба", "rule": "цена > FV +25%", "price_min": 149.5233861941551, "color": "r" }, { "name": "Изход / хеджиране", "rule": "цена > FV +40%", "price_min": 167.4661925374537, "color": "r" } ] }, "strategies": [ { "key": "value", "name": "Стойностна (Value / Margin of Safety)", "description": "Купува се със защитен марж под справедливата цена и се държи до сближаване. Дълъг хоризонт, малко сделки.", "horizon_months": 24, "entry": 95.69496716425927, "stop": 71.77122537319445, "target": 119.61870895532408, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Изчакайте цена ≤ 95.69 (MoS ≥ 20%). Сега MoS е -74%.", "trigger": 95.69496716425927, "stats": { "p_fill": 0.14733333333333334, "p_target": 0.3438914027149321, "p_stop": 0.30995475113122173, "p_open": 0.34615384615384615, "exp_return": 0.0024975594633806983, "kelly": 2.595155709342556, "rr": 1.0 }, "risk": "Нисък–Среден" }, { "key": "trend", "name": "Тренд / Momentum (Trend Following)", "description": "Купува се в потвърден възходящ тренд, с плаващ stop на 2.5×ATR и цел 2R. Средносрочно, повече сделки, по-ниска успеваемост, по-висок коефициент печалба/загуба.", "horizon_months": 6, "entry": 208.0500030517578, "stop": 191.99012421620188, "target": 240.1697607228697, "applicable": true, "status_reason": "Златен кръст, цена над SMA200 и ADX > 20.", "trigger": null, "stats": { "p_fill": 1.0, "p_target": 0.4035, "p_stop": 0.5915, "p_open": 0.005, "exp_return": 1.6797806691667225, "kelly": 5.0, "rr": 2.0000000000000018 }, "risk": "Среден–Висок" }, { "key": "reversion", "name": "Контрариан / Mean Reversion (краткосрочен swing)", "description": "Купува се препродадена акция около подкрепа и се продава при връщане към средната. Кратък хоризонт, строг stop.", "horizon_months": 3, "entry": 207.25, "stop": 194.40209693155523, "target": 220.09790306844477, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Не е препродадена (RSI 41). Лимит вход при ~207.25.", "trigger": 207.25, "stats": { "p_fill": 0.901, "p_target": 0.4308176100628931, "p_stop": 0.5591934887162412, "p_open": 0.009988901220865706, "exp_return": -0.7973325437218015, "kelly": 0.0, "rr": 1.0 }, "risk": "Висок" }, { "key": "dca", "name": "Редовно натрупване (DCA) + доход", "description": "Равни месечни вноски за 12 месеца – изглажда входа и намалява риска от лош момент. Подходящо при несигурност.", "horizon_months": 12, "entry": 219.06550308834824, "stop": null, "target": null, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Препоръчва се само с половин размер: акцията е силно надценена (MoS < −25%).", "trigger": null, "risk": "Нисък–Среден", "stats": { "avg_cost": 219.06550308834824, "p_profit": 53.28333333333334, "exp_return": 3.786325693553528, "worst5": -31.038210247615577, "dividend_yield": 0.4806536819666492, "tranches": 12 } } ], "scenarios": { "1": { "exp_price": 210.2208846082423, "exp_return": 1.0434422132377668, "p_profit": 52.1125, "p_loss20": 1.5625, "p_gain30": 0.7250000000000001, "var95": -15.324786805481786, "cvar95": -18.930690696810686, "annualized": 13.265486097556245 }, "3": { "exp_price": 215.63897041022673, "exp_return": 3.6476651031727996, "p_profit": 53.7, "p_loss20": 9.325, "p_gain30": 9.375, "var95": -24.14622979426526, "cvar95": -29.606665470111608, "annualized": 15.40857863614804 }, "6": { "exp_price": 225.50468287007823, "exp_return": 8.389656122224665, "p_profit": 57.462500000000006, "p_loss20": 15.0625, "p_gain30": 20.4375, "var95": -32.28104483185747, "cvar95": -38.66720762153582, "annualized": 17.483175542941144 }, "12": { "exp_price": 233.0156123853496, "exp_return": 11.99981204873185, "p_profit": 55.4875, "p_loss20": 23.4875, "p_gain30": 27.875, "var95": -43.33636371704937, "cvar95": -51.42375554558376, "annualized": 11.99981204873184 }, "24": { "exp_price": 230.75255140317742, "exp_return": 10.91206345513571, "p_profit": 47.5375, "p_loss20": 35.862500000000004, "p_gain30": 28.6375, "var95": -58.88404611082459, "cvar95": -66.44073021534024, "annualized": 5.31479642250452 }, "36": { "exp_price": 220.5700587225267, "exp_return": 6.017810856582498, "p_profit": 41.5625, "p_loss20": 44.737500000000004, "p_gain30": 25.8625, "var95": -70.01317599406843, "cvar95": -76.56756356309141, "annualized": 1.9669926701183948 } }, "risk": { "ann_return": 21.40770050682138, "vol": 43.93929727680508, "sharpe": 0.37432779967004415, "sortino": 0.5249679276753668, "max_drawdown": -36.886835186281196, "calmar": 0.5803615408779565, "var95_1m": -12.974939553829767, "cvar95_1m": -14.75590793641517, "beta": 2.247 }, "confidence": { "label": "средна", "why": "умерено разминаване между моделите (98%)." }, "narrative": [ { "kind": "val", "text": "Според ансамбъла от 4 модела акцията е силно надценена (справедлива цена ≈ 119.62, MoS -74%). Увереност в оценката: средна – умерено разминаване между моделите (98%)." }, { "kind": "val", "text": "EV/EBITDA е 21.3, P/E 26.3, PEG 0.25." }, { "kind": "quality", "text": "ROIC е 117.9% срещу цена на капитала ≈ 14.9% – бизнесът създава стойност." }, { "kind": "quality", "text": "Оперативният марж е 65%, нетният 64%, FCF марж 42%." }, { "kind": "safety", "text": "Финансова устойчивост: Piotroski 4.0/9, Altman Z 67.6" }, { "kind": "safety", "text": "Нетният дълг е -0.2× EBITDA, лихвите са покрити 497×." }, { "kind": "growth", "text": "Приходите растат със 100% годишно (3 г.), печалбата на акция със 204%." }, { "kind": "tech", "text": "Технически: RSI 41, цената е -6.1% спрямо SMA50 и +1.7% спрямо SMA200, ADX 22." }, { "kind": "risk", "text": "Риск: годишна волатилност 44%, максимален спад за 2 г. -37%, VaR 95% за месец -13% (CVaR -15%)." }, { "kind": "warn", "text": "Активни сигнали за продажба: accounting_flag, mos_lt_-25." } ], "verdict": { "score": 38.2, "action": "ИЗБЯГВАЙТЕ / 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"key": "dq", "name": "Без дисквалифициращи рискове", "ok": false, "detail": "Beneish M = -1.14 > −1.78 (риск от счетоводни манипулации)" }, { "key": "entry", "name": "Сигнал за Транш 1 (MoS ≥ 20%, RSI < 40)", "ok": false, "detail": "RSI 41, MoS -74%" }, { "key": "real", "name": "Нетна очаквана печалба ≥ +8% и стоп ≤ 50%", "ok": false, "detail": "след такси и данък: +1.4% от капитала; стоп в 31% от пътищата" }, { "key": "edge", "name": "Побеждава пазара (rf + ERP)", "ok": false, "detail": "очаквана нетна +1.4% срещу пазарна ≈ 10.0% годишно → преимущество -8.5 п.п." } ], "passed": 1, "disqualifiers": [ "Beneish M = -1.14 > −1.78 (риск от счетоводни манипулации)" ], "catalysts": [ { "key": "margin", "text": "Цикличен обрат / разширяване на оперативния марж", "directional": true }, { "key": "analyst", "text": "Таргет на анализаторите +57% над цената", "directional": true }, { "key": "earnings", "text": "Предстоящ отчет до 90 дни (времево събитие, не гарантира посока)", "directional": false } ], "tranches": [ { "n": 1, "alloc": 0.3, "price": 208.0500030517578, "trigger": "MoS ≥ 20%, катализатор, RSI(14) < 40", "goal": "Първоначална експозиция" }, { "n": 2, "alloc": 0.4, "price": 190.00999450683594, "trigger": "Тест на институционално ниво", "goal": "Сваля WAP към локалното дъно" }, { "n": 3, "alloc": 0.3, "price": 174.76200256347656, "trigger": "Капитулация – резервно ниво −16.0% (няма подкрепа в диапазона); VIX скок / фалшив негатив без промяна в тезата", "goal": "Максимален ефект върху средната цена" } ], "wap": { "all": 189.9792135419567, "t1_t2": 197.3435601878612, "t1": 208.0500030517578 }, "exits": { "tp1": 227.97505625034805, "tp1_pct": 20.0, "tp2": 265.9708989587394, "tp2_pct": 39.99999999999999, "stop": 151.98337083356537, "stop_pct": 20.0, "fair_value": 119.61870895532408 }, "upside": -0.37035896335623886, "rr": -1.8517948167811942, "vix": { "last": 20.799999237060547, "avg20": 17.571500062942505, "spike": false }, "sim": { "expected": 1.4175374884732457, 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27.46162868868504, "invested_avg": 85.252 }, "best": false }, { "name": "Адаптивен (−14%, ≈ 0.75σ за тримесечие)", "stop_pct": 13.877604543321025, "rr": -2.872421168014181, "upside": -0.39862325051565084, "sim": { "expected": 0.5814779789990705, "median": 1.8653938880646326, "p_profit": 51.5, "p_ge20": 13.94, "p_ge10": 27.58, "p_loss": 48.5, "p_stop": 51.1, "p_t2": 82.67999999999999, "p_t3": 71.08, "p_tp1": 56.96, "p_tp2": 39.32, "worst5": -17.121158026064922, "cvar5": -17.95975398036798, "best95": 27.84261314400589, "invested_avg": 84.39599999999999 }, "best": false }, { "name": "Широк (−20%)", "stop_pct": 20.0, "rr": -1.8517948167811942, "upside": -0.37035896335623886, "sim": { "expected": 1.4175374884732457, "median": 6.489070928166937, "p_profit": 65.25999999999999, "p_ge20": 10.18, "p_ge10": 26.419999999999998, "p_loss": 34.74, "p_stop": 31.180000000000003, "p_t2": 68.04, "p_t3": 52.38, "p_tp1": 68.26, "p_tp2": 51.480000000000004, "worst5": -22.657478019361353, "cvar5": -23.42129939620718, "best95": 27.33966725993454, "invested_avg": 72.92999999999999 }, "best": true } ], "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2.0, "rec_pct": 10.0, "full_loss_pct": 20.0 }, "assumptions": { "commission": 0.1, "spread": 0.05, "fx": 0.25, "stop_slip": 0.3, "tax": 10.0, "market_expected": 9.960000038146974, "side_cost": 0.4 }, "hypothetical_target": true, "edge": -8.54246254967373, "entry_needed": null, "steps": [ "Не влизайте.", "Причина: Beneish M = -1.14 > −1.78 (риск от счетоводни манипулации)", "Ако акцията ви интересува, проследете я за промяна във фундамента." ], "note": "Стопът се избира от три варианта по най-добро съотношение очаквана нетна печалба / опашков риск (CVaR 5%). Нивата на Транш 2 и 3 са пропорционални на стопа, за да остават над него. Всички резултати са след такси, плъзгане и данък. Катализаторите са автоматични прокси – потвърдете ги с новини и отчети." }, "fan": [ { "m": 0, "p10": 208.0500030517578, "p25": 208.0500030517578, "p50": 208.0500030517578, "p75": 208.0500030517578, "p90": 208.0500030517578 }, { "m": 1, "p10": 182.53975299787197, "p25": 194.77097392813474, "p50": 209.32354333004483, "p75": 224.9634270885363, "p90": 240.0372799494034 }, { "m": 2, "p10": 173.5315375598688, "p25": 190.2007623806236, "p50": 210.60487935366527, "p75": 233.1978833965517, "p90": 255.59858358466698 }, { "m": 3, "p10": 167.15907783327924, "p25": 187.0321456220782, "p50": 211.89405884285728, "p75": 240.06083031108724, "p90": 268.60098030501 }, { "m": 4, "p10": 162.44933416091774, "p25": 184.94878829675932, "p50": 213.61865380651082, "p75": 246.73278302794637, "p90": 280.9056096770653 }, { "m": 5, "p10": 158.7218083262801, "p25": 183.49297063492304, "p50": 215.5731109671542, "p75": 253.26183347108724, "p90": 292.7875297169387 }, { "m": 6, "p10": 155.71729436079463, "p25": 182.5286666532387, "p50": 217.76346873784712, "p75": 259.7998943740047, "p90": 304.5321877149094 }, { "m": 7, "p10": 152.00896346034529, "p25": 180.46437665150358, "p50": 218.3671010420412, "p75": 264.2304908164142, "p90": 313.6932831592162 }, { "m": 8, "p10": 148.45989989018318, "p25": 178.35153048041857, "p50": 218.66999315879835, "p75": 268.102918877496, "p90": 322.0840505984388 }, { "m": 9, "p10": 145.01372770917962, "p25": 176.1608709140299, "p50": 218.67089073518818, "p75": 271.43915789481, "p90": 329.74090943180215 }, { "m": 10, "p10": 141.6320590644473, "p25": 173.87323715492207, "p50": 218.36979005239755, "p75": 274.2536228565196, "p90": 336.68482632049967 }, { "m": 11, "p10": 138.28828017480768, "p25": 171.476261937169, "p50": 217.76793805139803, "p75": 276.5565000509159, "p90": 342.9276492788192 }, { "m": 12, "p10": 134.96386120896614, "p25": 168.96240147182021, "p50": 216.86782373036291, "p75": 278.3557321620324, "p90": 348.4758997575218 }, { "m": 13, "p10": 132.07703494040985, "p25": 166.8722304063048, "p50": 216.3792553247094, "p75": 280.57383796499437, "p90": 354.4899547146852 }, { "m": 14, "p10": 129.2328865468713, "p25": 164.7265017107478, "p50": 215.70206839337186, "p75": 282.4523183942728, "p90": 360.02741680078407 }, { "m": 15, "p10": 126.4215751458751, "p25": 162.52143815941548, "p50": 214.83804156296776, "p75": 283.99566620459115, "p90": 365.0910380554409 }, { "m": 16, "p10": 123.63566544123618, "p25": 160.254738610976, "p50": 213.78943876862925, "p75": 285.20794158828716, "p90": 369.6823563482935 }, { "m": 17, "p10": 120.86959967664228, "p25": 157.9252895872195, "p50": 212.5589993703733, "p75": 286.0930528063491, "p90": 373.8022491528573 }, { "m": 18, "p10": 118.11930746645987, "p25": 155.5329494108517, "p50": 211.14992622983323, "p75": 286.6549597094783, "p90": 377.4513439263414 }, { "m": 19, "p10": 115.3819112367963, "p25": 153.07838250772429, "p50": 209.56587181998316, "p75": 286.8978226200785, "p90": 380.63032724027045 }, { "m": 20, "p10": 112.65549947925679, "p25": 150.56292915720348, "p50": 207.8109224521617, "p75": 286.82611139511164, "p90": 383.3401803732632 }, { "m": 21, "p10": 109.93894907710269, "p25": 147.98850078402913, "p50": 205.88958071571625, "p75": 286.4446847066661, "p90": 385.58236005661644 }, { "m": 22, "p10": 107.23178379137387, "p25": 145.35749398203862, "p50": 203.8067462358655, "p75": 285.75884650558913, "p90": 387.35893727240114 }, { "m": 23, "p10": 104.53405983694944, "p25": 142.6727185036146, "p50": 201.56769486483677, "p75": 284.774384614355, "p90": 388.67270319833796 }, { "m": 24, "p10": 101.84627206744659, "p25": 139.9373358266187, "p50": 199.17805642991075, "p75": 283.4975950403251, "p90": 389.5272488415132 }, { "m": 25, "p10": 99.73145954094872, "p25": 137.93232656148444, "p50": 197.75855064103166, "p75": 283.5335655286622, "p90": 392.13749133576005 }, { "m": 26, "p10": 97.645623623503, "p25": 135.91761051356355, "p50": 196.26535341086202, "p75": 283.4076379355312, "p90": 394.4886367669108 }, { "m": 27, "p10": 95.58729252333136, "p25": 133.89335656353546, "p50": 194.700291029366, "p75": 283.1223617053137, "p90": 396.58203853474595 }, { "m": 28, "p10": 93.55524244223095, "p25": 131.85988870527507, "p50": 193.0652672736356, "p75": 282.6803343566693, "p90": 398.41912066506217 }, { "m": 29, "p10": 91.54846288652234, "p25": 129.81766551363356, "p50": 191.36225955303155, "p75": 282.0842158604062, "p90": 400.0014115652933 }, { "m": 30, "p10": 89.56612726292765, "p25": 127.76726242434036, "p50": 189.5933149294034, "p75": 281.3367398178839, "p90": 401.3305717729542 }, { "m": 31, "p10": 87.60756779045983, "p25": 125.7093563130031, "p50": 187.76054602358437, "p75": 280.44072197216354, "p90": 402.40841667235054 }, { "m": 32, "p10": 85.67225396397005, "p25": 123.64471196932357, "p50": 185.86612681959818, "p75": 279.399066475968, "p90": 403.236934952681 }, { "m": 33, "p10": 83.75977396151285, "p25": 121.57417014617394, "p50": 183.91228837821623, "p75": 278.2147702578962, "p90": 403.8183034263439 }, { "m": 34, "p10": 81.86981850851798, "p25": 119.49863692766654, "p50": 181.90131447166334, "p75": 276.89092576468, "p90": 404.1548987075912 }, { "m": 35, "p10": 80.00216680582614, "p25": 117.41907421055325, "p50": 179.83553715138706, "p75": 275.43072230781763, "p90": 404.24930615970146 }, { "m": 36, "p10": 78.15667420245164, "p25": 115.33649113267364, "p50": 177.71733226088287, "p75": 273.8374462042029, "p90": 404.10432644707294 } ], "profile": { "summary": "NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets. It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system integrators and distributors, independent software vendors, cloud service providers, add-in board manufacturers, distributors, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, and other ecosystem participants. It has a collaboration with Cisco to develop Ultra-Dense Small Form Factor Pluggable (USFP), a high-density optical module pluggable transceiver. It has a collaboration with ChipAgents to develop Build-A-Chip-Bench, a benchmark for AI agents carrying chip design tasks and The Company has a strategic alliance with MediaTek to build the next generations of AI computing platforms. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.", "website": "https://www.nvidia.com", "employees": 42000, "country": "United States", "city": "Santa Clara", "exchange": "NasdaqGS", "industry": "Semiconductors", "market_cap": 5023783190528.0, "target_low": 180.0, "target_mean": 327.1431, "target_high": 515.0, "recommendation": "strong_buy", "analysts": 58, "beta": 2.247, "next_earnings": 1794949200, "financials": { "years": [ "2026", "2025", "2024", "2023", "2022" ], "revenue": [ 215938000000.0, 130497000000.0, 60922000000.0, 26974000000.0, null ], "operating_income": [ 130387000000.0, 81453000000.0, 32972000000.0, 5577000000.0, null ], "net_income": [ 120067000000.0, 72880000000.0, 29760000000.0, 4368000000.0, null ], "fcf": [ 96676000000.0, 60853000000.0, 27021000000.0, 3808000000.0, null ], "eps": [ 4.9, 2.94, 1.19, 0.174, null ], "total_debt": [ 11040000000.0, 9982000000.0, 11056000000.0, 12031000000.0, null ], "equity": [ 157293000000.0, 79327000000.0, 42978000000.0, 22101000000.0, null ] } }, "eu_listing": null, "interpretation": { "factors": { "1": { "name": "Trailing P/E", "rating": "y", "text": "Над средното – пазарът плаща премия за растеж/качество" }, "2": { "name": "Forward P/E", "rating": "g", "text": "Умерена оценка спрямо очакванията" }, "3": { "name": "PEG Ratio", "rating": "g", "text": "Под 1 – растежът е „евтин“ спрямо цената" }, "4": { "name": "Price to Book", "rating": "r", "text": "Много висока премия над собствения капитал" }, "5": { "name": "Price to Tangible Book", "rating": "r", "text": "Цената е далеч над материалните активи – стойността е в нематериални неща (марка, софтуер)" }, "6": { "name": "Price to Sales", "rating": "r", "text": "Много висока – всичко зависи от бъдещите маржове" }, "7": { "name": "Forward P/S", "rating": "r", "text": "Много висока оценка спрямо очакваните приходи" }, "8": { "name": "EV/EBITDA", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа – очакванията са високи" }, "9": { "name": "EV/EBIT", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа по оперативна печалба" }, "10": { "name": "EV/FCF", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа спрямо свободния кеш" }, "11": { "name": "P/FCF", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа спрямо свободния кеш" }, "12": { "name": "P/OCF", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа спрямо оперативния кеш" }, "13": { "name": "Earnings Yield − 10Y", "rating": "r", "text": "Печалбата дава по-малко от безрисковата облигация – оценката разчита на растеж" }, "14": { "name": "FCF Yield", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерен кеш доход" }, "15": { "name": "EV/Invested Capital", "rating": "r", "text": "Много голяма премия над вложения капитал" }, "16": { "name": "Gross Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Много висок брутен марж – типичен за ров (софтуер, марка, патенти)" }, "17": { "name": "Operating Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен оперативен марж" }, "18": { "name": "Net Profit Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен нетен марж" }, "19": { "name": "EBITDA Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Много висока кеш-генерираща способност" }, "20": { "name": "FCF Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Отлична кеш конверсия" }, "21": { "name": "ROIC", "rating": "g", "text": "Изключителна възвръщаемост – типичен знак за ров" }, "22": { "name": "ROE", "rating": "g", "text": "Много висок ROE – проверете дали не е раздут от дълг или обратни изкупувания" }, "23": { "name": "ROA", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен ROA" }, "24": { "name": "ROCE", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен ROCE" }, "25": { "name": "Asset Turnover", "rating": "g", "text": "Висок оборот на активите – лек, ефективен бизнес" }, "26": { "name": "Inventory Turnover", "rating": "y", "text": "Бавно въртящи се запаси – риск от остаряване" }, "27": { "name": "DSO", "rating": "y", "text": "Нормален срок за събиране" }, "28": { "name": "Cash Conversion Cycle", "rating": "y", "text": "Дълъг цикъл – много капитал е в оборот" }, "29": { "name": "Revenue per Employee", "rating": "g", "text": "Много висока продуктивност на служител" }, "30": { "name": "CFO / Net Income", "rating": "r", "text": "Слаба кеш подкрепа на печалбата – внимание за качеството на печалбата" }, "31": { "name": "Current Ratio", "rating": "g", "text": "Комфортна краткосрочна ликвидност" }, "32": { "name": "Quick Ratio", "rating": "g", "text": "Силна бърза ликвидност" }, "33": { "name": "Cash Ratio", "rating": "g", "text": "Много пари – голям буфер" }, "34": { "name": "Debt/Equity", "rating": "g", "text": "Ниска задлъжнялост" }, "35": { "name": "Debt/Capital", "rating": "g", "text": "Малък дял на дълга във финансирането" }, "36": { "name": "Net Debt/EBITDA", "rating": "g", "text": "Нетна парична позиция – повече пари, отколкото дълг" }, "37": { "name": "Interest Coverage", "rating": "g", "text": "Лихвите са покрити многократно" }, "38": { "name": "Cash Flow to Debt", "rating": "g", "text": "Дългът може да се изплати за по-малко от ~3 години" }, "39": { "name": "Piotroski F-Score", "rating": "y", "text": "Смесена фундаментална динамика (4–6)" }, "40": { "name": "Altman Z-Score", "rating": "g", "text": "Безопасна зона – нисък риск от фалит" }, "41": { "name": "Beneish M-Score", "rating": "r", "text": "Над прага −1.78 – статистически признаци за агресивно счетоводство (не е доказателство)" }, "42": { "name": "Net Working Capital", "rating": "g", "text": "Положителен оборотен капитал – буфер" }, "43": { "name": "Debt Maturity (short-term share)", "rating": "g", "text": "Малък дял краткосрочен дълг" }, "44": { "name": "Effective Borrowing Cost", "rating": "y", "text": "Нормално финансиране" }, "45": { "name": "Synthetic Credit Rating", "rating": "g", "text": "Инвестиционен клас (по покритие на лихвите)" }, "46": { "name": "3Y Revenue CAGR", "rating": "g", "text": "Много бърз ръст на приходите" }, "48": { "name": "3Y EPS CAGR", "rating": "g", "text": "Много бърз ръст на печалбата на акция" }, "50": { "name": "3Y FCF CAGR", "rating": "g", "text": "Свободният кеш расте добре" }, "52": { "name": "Operating Income Growth", "rating": "g", "text": "Силен ръст на оперативната печалба" }, "53": { "name": "CapEx Trend", "rating": "y", "text": "Рязко растящи инвестиции – следете връщането им (ROIC)" }, "54": { "name": "Margin Expansion (bps/yr)", "rating": "g", "text": "Маржът се разширява – оперативен ливъридж" }, "56": { "name": "Dividend Yield", "rating": "y", "text": "Символична дивидентна доходност" }, "57": { "name": "Dividend Payout", "rating": "g", "text": "Устойчив дял на печалбата за дивидент" }, "58": { "name": "FCF Payout", "rating": "g", "text": "Дивидентът е сигурно покрит от кеша" }, "61": { "name": "Buyback Yield", "rating": "y", "text": "Малки обратни изкупувания" }, "62": { "name": "Total Shareholder Yield", "rating": "g", "text": "Добра обща доходност за акционерите" }, "63": { "name": "Net Share Dilution", "rating": "y", "text": "Броят акции е почти непроменен" }, "64": { "name": "SBC % of Revenue", "rating": "g", "text": "Малък скрит разход за акции" }, "65": { "name": "Reinvestment Rate", "rating": "g", "text": "Умерено реинвестиране" }, "66": { "name": "RSI (14)", "rating": "y", "text": "Слабо-неутрален импулс" }, "67": { "name": "MACD hist (% of price)", "rating": "r", "text": "Импулсът е отрицателен" }, "68": { "name": "Price vs SMA50", "rating": "y", "text": "Леко под 50-дневната средна" }, "69": { "name": "Price vs SMA200", "rating": "g", "text": "Над 200-дневната средна – дългосрочен възходящ тренд" }, "70": { "name": "Golden/Death Cross", "rating": "g", "text": "Golden Cross – 50-дневната е над 200-дневната" }, "71": { "name": "ATR % of price", "rating": "r", "text": "Висока дневна волатилност – по-широк стоп и по-малка позиция" }, "72": { "name": "Bollinger %B", "rating": "y", "text": "В рамките на лентите" }, "73": { "name": "VWAP deviation", "rating": "y", "text": "Под средната претеглена цена – продавачите доминират" }, "74": { "name": "Relative Volume", "rating": "y", "text": "Слаб интерес (обем под нормата)" }, "75": { "name": "OBV trend", "rating": "y", "text": "Неутрален обем" }, "76": { "name": "ADX (14)", "rating": "g", "text": "Ясен тренд" }, "77": { "name": "Stochastic %K", "rating": "y", "text": "Неутрална" }, "78": { "name": "52-Week Range Percentile", "rating": "y", "text": "В средата на годишния диапазон" }, "79": { "name": "Historical Volatility 30D", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерена волатилност" }, "80": { "name": "Downside Deviation", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерени отрицателни колебания" }, "81": { "name": "Bid-Ask Spread %", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпо за търгуване – широк спред" }, "82": { "name": "Short Interest % Float", "rating": "g", "text": "Малко къси позиции" }, "83": { "name": "Days to Cover", "rating": "g", "text": "Късите позиции се покриват бързо" }, "84": { "name": "Institutional Ownership %", "rating": "g", "text": "Добро институционално присъствие" }, "86": { "name": "Insider Ownership %", "rating": "g", "text": "Вътрешните лица имат значителен дял – съвпадащи интереси" }, "87": { "name": "Insider Net Buy/Sell L3M", "rating": "r", "text": "Нетни продажби от вътрешни лица (често планови)" }, "92": { "name": "EPS Growth Forecast", "rating": "g", "text": "Силен очакван ръст на печалбата" }, "93": { "name": "Revenue Growth Forecast", "rating": "g", "text": "Силен очакван ръст на приходите" }, "95": { "name": "Price Target Upside %", "rating": "g", "text": "Значителен потенциал според таргета на анализаторите" }, "96": { "name": "WACC", "rating": "r", "text": "Висока цена на капитала – намалява справедливата цена" }, "97": { "name": "EVA spread (ROIC−WACC)", "rating": "g", "text": "Създава голяма стойност над цената на капитала" }, "98": { "name": "Beta", "rating": "r", "text": "По-рискова от пазара – усилва колебанията" } }, "modules": { "1": { "summary": "Предимно тревожна картина: 2 благоприятни, 2 неутрални, 11 тревожни от 15 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 2, "y": 2, "r": 11 }, "tone": "r", "name": "Оценка и мултиплекси", "meaning": "Показва колко скъпа е акцията спрямо печалби, приходи и кеш. Високи стойности значат, че очакванията вече са в цената." }, "2": { "summary": "Предимно благоприятна картина: 11 благоприятни, 3 неутрални, 1 тревожни от 15 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 11, "y": 3, "r": 1 }, "tone": "g", "name": "Рентабилност и ефективност", "meaning": "Показва колко ефективно бизнесът превръща приходите и капитала в печалба и кеш – основа на „рова“." }, "3": { "summary": "Предимно благоприятна картина: 12 благоприятни, 2 неутрални, 1 тревожни от 15 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 12, "y": 2, "r": 1 }, "tone": "g", "name": "Баланс и ликвидност", "meaning": "Показва дали компанията може да издържи труден период – ликвидност, дълг и риск от фалит/манипулации." }, "4": { "summary": "Предимно благоприятна картина: 5 благоприятни, 1 неутрални, 0 тревожни от 6 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 5, "y": 1, "r": 0 }, "tone": "g", "name": "Исторически растеж", "meaning": "Показва как са растели приходите, печалбата и кешът – дали бизнесът се развива или стагнира." }, "5": { "summary": "Предимно благоприятна картина: 5 благоприятни, 3 неутрални, 0 тревожни от 8 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 5, "y": 3, "r": 0 }, "tone": "g", "name": "Възвръщаемост за акционерите", "meaning": "Показва колко от създадената стойност стига до акционерите – дивиденти, обратни изкупувания, размиване." }, "6": { "summary": "Смесена картина с превес на положителните сигнали: 3 благоприятни, 10 неутрални, 2 тревожни от 15 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 3, "y": 10, "r": 2 }, "tone": "y", "name": "Технически индикатори", "meaning": "Показва какво прави цената сега – тренд, импулс и волатилност. Важи за тайминг, не за качеството на бизнеса." }, "7": { "summary": "Смесена картина с превес на положителните сигнали: 4 благоприятни, 0 неутрални, 2 тревожни от 6 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 4, "y": 0, "r": 2 }, "tone": "y", "name": "Пазарна структура", "meaning": "Показва кой държи и търгува акцията – ликвидност, къси позиции, институции и вътрешни лица." }, "8": { "summary": "Смесена картина с превес на положителните сигнали: 4 благоприятни, 0 неутрални, 2 тревожни от 6 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 4, "y": 0, "r": 2 }, "tone": "y", "name": "Прогнози и макро", "meaning": "Показва какво очаква пазарът за бъдещето – прогнози на анализатори, цена на капитала и чувствителност." } }, "insights": [ { "kind": "warn", "text": "Висококачествен бизнес (ROIC 118%), но оценен скъпо (EV/EBITDA 21.3) – очакванията вече са в цената; по-малко място за разочарование." }, { "kind": "risk", "text": "Печалбата е слабо подкрепена с кеш (CFO/Net Income 0.70) – проверете начисленията и вземанията." }, { "kind": "good", "text": "PEG 0.25 при ръст на EPS 204% – растежът не е надплатен." }, { "kind": "good", "text": "Оперативен ливъридж: маржът се разширява (~1324 б.п./год.) заедно с ръст на оперативната печалба." }, { "kind": "warn", "text": "Печалбата дава по-малко от безрисковата доходност (5.0%) – инвестицията разчита на бъдещ растеж." }, { "kind": "good", "text": "Нетна парична позиция с голям буфер от пари – висока устойчивост и гъвкавост (изкупувания, придобивания)." }, { "kind": "warn", "text": "Beneish M над −1.78 – статистически признаци за агресивно счетоводство; прочетете забележките към отчетите." } ], "strengths": [ { "id": 3, "name": "PEG Ratio", "text": "Под 1 – растежът е „евтин“ спрямо цената", "value": 0.2496 }, { "id": 16, "name": "Gross Margin", "text": "Много висок брутен марж – типичен за ров (софтуер, марка, патенти)", "value": 74.67463667900016 }, { "id": 17, "name": "Operating Margin", "text": "Отличен оперативен марж", "value": 65.21426284537361 }, { "id": 18, "name": "Net Profit Margin", "text": "Отличен нетен марж", "value": 63.66294901458565 }, { "id": 19, "name": "EBITDA Margin", "text": "Много висока кеш-генерираща способност", "value": 77.20063768900448 }, { "id": 20, "name": "FCF Margin", "text": "Отлична кеш конверсия", "value": 41.920460509161 } ], "risks": [ { "id": 4, "name": "Price to Book", "text": "Много висока премия над собствения капитал", "value": 21.93926 }, { "id": 6, "name": "Price to Sales", "text": "Много висока – всичко зависи от бъдещите маржове", "value": 16.581839034779136 }, { "id": 41, "name": "Beneish M-Score", "text": "Над прага −1.78 – статистически признаци за агресивно счетоводство (не е доказателство)", "value": -1.1389737674111038 }, { "id": 10, "name": "EV/FCF", "text": "Скъпа спрямо свободния кеш", "value": 39.14986056192621 }, { "id": 13, "name": "Earnings Yield − 10Y", "text": "Печалбата дава по-малко от безрисковата облигация – оценката разчита на растеж", "value": -1.1580294768050292 }, { "id": 30, "name": "CFO / Net Income", "text": "Слаба кеш подкрепа на печалбата – внимание за качеството на печалбата", "value": 0.6966025331943861 } ], "counts": { "g": 46, "y": 21, "r": 19 } }, "modules": { "quarterly": { "available": true, "quarters": [ { "date": "2026-07-31", "revenue": 96221000000.0, "gross": 72142000000.0, "operating": 63734000000.0, "net": 59688000000.0, "ebitda": 72861000000.0, "eps": 2.46, "fcf": 21400000000.0, "cfo": 24077000000.0, "gross_m": 74.97531723844068, "op_m": 66.23710000935347, "net_m": 62.03219671381507, "fcf_m": 22.240467257667245, "rev_yoy": 105.85114348672526, "rev_qoq": 17.896220057587463, "eps_yoy": 127.77777777777777 }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "revenue": 81615000000.0, "gross": 61157000000.0, "operating": 53536000000.0, "net": 58321000000.0, "ebitda": 71002000000.0, "eps": 2.39, "fcf": 48587000000.0, "cfo": 50344000000.0, "gross_m": 74.9335293757275, "op_m": 65.59578508852539, "net_m": 71.45867793910433, "fcf_m": 59.53194878392453, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": 19.79831784754944, "eps_yoy": null }, { "date": "2026-01-31", "revenue": 68127000000.0, "gross": 51093000000.0, "operating": 44299000000.0, "net": 42960000000.0, "ebitda": 51283000000.0, "eps": 1.76, "fcf": 34904000000.0, "cfo": 36188000000.0, "gross_m": 74.99669734466511, "op_m": 65.02414608011507, "net_m": 63.0586991941521, "fcf_m": 51.23372524843307, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": 19.50847279233765, "eps_yoy": null }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "revenue": 57006000000.0, "gross": 41849000000.0, "operating": 36010000000.0, "net": 31910000000.0, "ebitda": 38748000000.0, "eps": 1.3, "fcf": 22115000000.0, "cfo": 23751000000.0, "gross_m": 73.41157071185489, "op_m": 63.16878925025436, "net_m": 55.976563870469775, "fcf_m": 38.79416201803319, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": 21.95622874013221, "eps_yoy": null }, { "date": "2025-07-31", "revenue": 46743000000.0, "gross": 33853000000.0, "operating": 28440000000.0, "net": 26422000000.0, "ebitda": 31937000000.0, "eps": 1.08, "fcf": 13470000000.0, "cfo": 15365000000.0, "gross_m": 72.4236784117408, "op_m": 60.84333483088377, "net_m": 56.52611086151937, "fcf_m": 28.81714909184263, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": null, "eps_yoy": null } ], "earnings": [ { "date": "2026-08-26", "estimate": 2.09, "reported": 2.22, "surprise": 6.16, "move": 8.73795275466771 }, { "date": "2026-05-20", "estimate": 1.77, "reported": 1.87, "surprise": 5.54, "move": -1.7720529342800773 }, { "date": "2026-02-25", "estimate": 1.54, "reported": 1.62, "surprise": 5.32, "move": -5.456125128938172 }, { "date": "2025-11-19", "estimate": 1.26, "reported": 1.3, "surprise": 3.46, "move": -3.152479491810023 }, { "date": "2025-08-27", "estimate": 1.01, "reported": 1.05, "surprise": 4.1, "move": -0.7874492767115715 }, { "date": "2025-05-28", "estimate": 0.75, "reported": 0.81, "surprise": 8.02, "move": 3.24902081606282 }, { "date": "2025-02-26", "estimate": 0.85, "reported": 0.89, "surprise": 5.25, "move": -8.47806014389847 }, { "date": "2024-11-20", "estimate": 0.75, "reported": 0.81, "surprise": 8.52, "move": 0.5346485588869188 }, { "date": "2024-08-28", "estimate": 0.64, "reported": 0.68, "surprise": 5.66, "move": null }, { "date": "2024-05-22", "estimate": 0.56, "reported": 0.61, "surprise": 9.74, "move": null }, { "date": "2024-02-21", "estimate": 0.46, "reported": 0.52, "surprise": 11.4, "move": null }, { "date": "2023-11-21", "estimate": 0.34, "reported": 0.4, "surprise": 18.73, "move": null } ], "beat": { "n": 24, "beat_rate": 91.66666666666666, "avg_surprise": 7.817083333333334, "streak": 15 }, "reaction": { "avg_abs_move": 4.0209736381569705, "n": 8 }, "trends": { "revenue": 1, "op_margin": 1, "eps": 1, "fcf": 0 }, "score": 99.91666666666666, "label": "Силен и подобряващ се тримесечен импулс", "notes": [ "Приходите през последното тримесечие (2026-07-31) са +105.9% спрямо същото тримесечие миналата година и +17.9% спрямо предходното.", "Оперативният марж е 66.2% (+0.6 п.п. спрямо предходното тримесечие).", "Свободният кеш през тримесечието е 22% от приходите; FCF/нетна печалба = 0.36.", "Внимание: свободният кеш е спаднал 56% спрямо предходното тримесечие – проверете капиталовите разходи и оборотния капитал.", "Печалбата е надминавала консенсуса в 92% от последните 24 отчета (серия: 15); средна изненада +7.8%.", "След отчет цената се е движела средно ±4.0% в следващия ден (последни ~3 г.)." ], "n_quarters": 5, "coverage_note": "Безплатният източник дава 5–7 тримесечия отчети (YoY е възможно само за най-новите 1–3), но до 24 тримесечия история на EPS изненадите." }, "orderflow": { "gex": { "available": true, "expirations": [ "2026-11-04", "2026-11-06", "2026-11-09", "2026-11-11", "2026-11-13", "2026-11-20" ], "put_wall": 190.0, "call_wall": 210.0, "gamma_flip": 215.0, "total_gex": 303813977.7061017, "regime": "Положителна гама – пазарът се стабилизира (маркет мейкърите продават на ръст/купуват на спад)", "put_call_oi": 0.6949429816788143, "put_call_vol": 0.5873756911453389, "atm_iv": 46.647567221069345, "strikes": [ { "strike": 190.0, "net": -51732539.09066177, "call_oi": 7338.0, "put_oi": 120806.0 }, { "strike": 195.0, "net": -25172394.150693372, "call_oi": 6779.0, "put_oi": 50394.0 }, { "strike": 200.0, "net": -66773111.2986962, "call_oi": 37103.0, "put_oi": 109699.0 }, { "strike": 205.0, "net": -33586329.68721394, "call_oi": 26747.0, "put_oi": 59601.0 }, { "strike": 207.5, "net": 37990114.338704824, "call_oi": 35830.0, "put_oi": 13507.0 }, { "strike": 210.0, "net": 92730200.40541105, "call_oi": 136497.0, "put_oi": 59061.0 }, { "strike": 212.5, "net": 69933534.35440865, "call_oi": 52010.0, "put_oi": 15390.0 }, { "strike": 215.0, "net": 71596340.82070927, "call_oi": 108672.0, "put_oi": 46128.0 }, { "strike": 217.5, "net": 39301752.630172335, "call_oi": 44813.0, "put_oi": 8540.0 }, { "strike": 220.0, "net": 62711475.49533036, "call_oi": 129286.0, "put_oi": 43519.0 }, { "strike": 225.0, "net": 17514803.35335895, "call_oi": 65807.0, "put_oi": 21948.0 }, { "strike": 230.0, "net": 51431543.808992185, "call_oi": 132854.0, "put_oi": 15955.0 } ] }, "ats": { "available": true, "weeks": [ { "week": "2026-07-20", "ats_shares": 73855998, "total_volume": 560374800.0, "share": 13.179750053000241 }, { "week": "2026-07-27", "ats_shares": 97534740, "total_volume": 705117400.0, "share": 13.832411453752242 }, { "week": "2026-08-03", "ats_shares": 88648052, "total_volume": 641126300.0, "share": 13.826924897637175 }, { "week": "2026-08-10", "ats_shares": 71435418, "total_volume": 500451400.0, "share": 14.274196855079236 }, { "week": "2026-08-17", "ats_shares": 64040503, "total_volume": 484930500.0, "share": 13.206119846039794 }, { "week": "2026-08-24", "ats_shares": 107467410, "total_volume": 931422500.0, "share": 11.53798732583763 }, { "week": "2026-08-31", "ats_shares": 80280986, "total_volume": 661597600.0, "share": 12.134413123626809 }, { "week": "2026-09-07", "ats_shares": 46217831, "total_volume": 400749200.0, "share": 11.532856709383326 }, { "week": "2026-09-28", "ats_shares": 73587144, "total_volume": 599330600.0, "share": 12.278222403461461 }, { "week": "2026-10-12", "ats_shares": 69292820, "total_volume": 521797700.0, "share": 13.279633083856062 } ], "last_week": "2026-10-12", "last_share": 13.279633083856062, "avg_share": 12.908251575167395, "lag_days": 22, "top_firms": [ { "name": "UBSA UBS ATS", "shares": 10597257, "notional": 2330965818.14 }, { "name": "INCR INTELLIGENT CROSS LLC", "shares": 7472469, "notional": 1649915033.360662 }, { "name": "BIDS BIDS ATS", "shares": 5703497, "notional": 1254257096.095 }, { "name": "SGMT SIGMA X2", "shares": 5564446, "notional": 1224916032.9592 }, { "name": "IATS IBKR ATS", "shares": 4805945, "notional": 1063865702.7 } ], "note": "FINRA публикува ATS обемите със седмично/месечно закъснение – това е структурен индикатор, не сигнал в реално време. Отделните блокови сделки >$5M (prints) не са свободно достъпни." }, "footprint": { "cmf20": -0.1834972641323251, "ad_slope": -0.18349726413232506, "accumulation_days": 0, "distribution_days": 0, "updown_vol": 0.3343544826671532 }, "signal": { "score": 0, "max": 5, "label": "Няма следа от натрупване", "reasons": [], "tranche2": false } }, "smartmoney": { "insiders": { "available": true, "cik": 1045810, "days": 180, "filings_checked": 30, "buys": [], "sells": [ { "filed": "2026-09-22", "date": "2026-09-18", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 1356000.0, "price": 219.7219, "value": 297942896.40000004, "after": 980531.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 58.034753230323076, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000016/" }, { "filed": "2026-06-23", "date": "2026-06-18", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 565615.0, "price": 210.4372, "value": 119026436.87799999, "after": 5207271.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 9.797785717576962, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000007/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-02", "date": "2026-08-31", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 447400.0, "price": 220.0959, "value": 98470905.66, "after": 4759871.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 8.591832458882974, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000012/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-02", "date": "2026-09-02", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 300000.0, "price": 226.2704, "value": 67881120.0, "after": 3358770.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 8.19947687337548, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000012/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-02", "date": "2026-09-02", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 300000.0, "price": 224.0715, "value": 67221450.0, "after": 3658770.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 7.578111383081108, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000012/" }, { "filed": "2026-06-23", "date": "2026-06-18", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 319385.0, "price": 209.6952, "value": 66973501.452, "after": 5772886.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 5.242462129475199, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000007/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-02", "date": "2026-09-02", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 300000.0, "price": 222.9204, "value": 66876120.0, "after": 3958770.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 7.0442874351045015, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000012/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-02", "date": "2026-09-02", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 300000.0, "price": 220.0761, "value": 66022830.0, "after": 4258770.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 6.580722431708554, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000012/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-08", "date": "2026-09-04", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 237820.0, "price": 231.1677, "value": 54976302.414, "after": 2523770.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 8.611705575411268, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000014/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-08", "date": "2026-09-03", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 200000.0, "price": 229.8705, "value": 45974100.0, "after": 2958770.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 6.331578430844917, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000014/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-08", "date": "2026-09-04", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 197180.0, "price": 230.4039, "value": 45431041.002, "after": 2761590.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 6.664255754925189, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000014/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-08", "date": "2026-09-03", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 198707.0, "price": 227.6954, "value": 45244669.8478, "after": 3160063.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 5.916064511711133, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000014/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-08", "date": "2026-09-04", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 182628.0, "price": 233.4615, "value": 42636606.822, "after": 2341142.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 7.236317097041331, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000014/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-02", "date": "2026-08-31", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 137600.0, "price": 220.9105, "value": 30397284.8, "after": 4622271.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 2.890834646569203, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000012/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-02", "date": "2026-09-01", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 63501.0, "price": 220.0589, "value": 13973960.208899999, "after": 4558770.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 1.3738052139305548, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000012/" } ], "buy_count": 0, "sell_count": 27, "buy_value": 0, "sell_value": 1153599251.7895, "net_value": -1153599251.7895, "unique_buyers": 0, "cluster_buying": false, "officer_buying": false, "big_sells": [ { "filed": "2026-09-22", "date": "2026-09-18", "insider": "STEVENS MARK A", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 1356000.0, "price": 219.7219, "value": 297942896.40000004, "after": 980531.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 58.034753230323076, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119903926000016/" } ], "planned_sells": 9, "note": "Парснати са Form 4 от SEC EDGAR; броят се само сделки с код P (покупка) и S (продажба на отворения пазар). Продажбите често са планови (10b5-1) или за данъци – помнете, че покупките са по-силен сигнал от продажбите." }, "darkpool": { "available": false, "reason": "Няма Polygon ключ. Добавете polygon_key в config.json (платен план Stocks Developer) за блокови сделки >$1M. Безплатният FINRA ATS дял е в модула „Институционален поток“." }, "score": { "value": 0, "accumulating": false, "signals": [ "⚠ Непланови продажби над 20% от дела на инсайдер (1)." ], "sources": { "sec": true, "polygon": false, "finra_ats": true } } }, "catalysts": { "trackers": [ { "key": "operating_leverage", "name": "Operating Leverage Turning Point", "horizon": "1–2 тримесечия", "mechanism": "Приходите растат по-бързо от разходите; скок на оперативния марж над 200 б.п.", "status": "active", "margin_now": 66.23710000935347, "margin_prev_year": 60.84333483088377, "delta_bps": 539.37651784697, "revenue_growth": 105.85114348672526, "cost_growth": 77.49549254220621, "detail": "Оперативен марж 66.2% срещу 60.8% преди година (+539 б.п.); приходи +105.9% срещу разходи +77.5%." }, { "key": "capital_allocation", "name": "Capital Allocation Shift", "horizon": "3–6 месеца", "mechanism": "Прекратяване на разводняващи M&A и насочване на FCF към обратни изкупувания при P/E < 15.", "status": "watch", "pe": 26.30215, "buyback_to_fcf": 31.562288395823817, "mna_to_fcf": 11.444341212226195, "share_change": -0.7067859623319905, "buyback_yield": 0.7979245616247814, "detail": "Обратни изкупувания = 32% от FCF, M&A = 11% от FCF, P/E 26.3, брой акции -0.7% YoY." }, { "key": "spinoff", "name": "Corporate Spin-Off / Asset Carve-Out", "horizon": "6–12 месеца", "mechanism": "Отделяне на звено; пазарът премахва „конгломератната отстъпка“.", "status": "unknown", "detail": "Новините не са достъпни в момента.", "headlines": [] }, { "key": "squeeze", "name": "Short Squeeze / Fundamental De-risking", "horizon": "1–3 месеца", "mechanism": "Short float > 15%, Days to Cover > 5 + положителен отчет, който опровергава мечата теза.", "status": "none", "short_float": 1.2999999, "days_to_cover": 2.84, "last_surprise": 6.16, "detail": "Short float 1.3%, Days to Cover 2.8, последна изненада в печалбата +6.2%." } ], "active": [ "Operating Leverage Turning Point" ], "events": [ { "type": "Отчет (Earnings)", "date": "2026-11-17", "extra": "EPS консенсус 2.47325, приходи 108976833310", "days": 14 }, { "type": "Месечен опционен падеж (OPEX)", "date": "2026-11-20", "extra": "Повишена волатилност около гама нивата", "days": 17 } ], "summary": "Активни катализатори: Operating Leverage Turning Point" }, "profitlock": { "rules": { "tp1_pct": 20.0, "sell_fraction": 35.0, "breakeven_plus": 1.0, "atr_mult": 2.5 }, "levels": { "wap": 189.9792135419567, "tp1": 227.97505625034805, "breakeven_stop": 191.87900567737628, "hh22": 243.3699951171875, "atr14": 6.423951534222379, "chandelier_now": 227.31011628163157, "initial_stop": 151.98337083356537, "tp2": 265.9708989587394 }, "baseline": { "expected": 1.5844091645907583, "median": 6.503022373711565, "p_loss": 34.0, "p_ge20": 10.35, "p_tp1": 68.77499999999999, "p_tp2": 51.9, "p_stop_before_tp1": 26.450000000000003, "p_be_exit": 4.2250000000000005, "cvar5": -23.393731019337064, "worst5": -22.651089708670156, "best95": 27.339667259934537 }, "locked": { "expected": 1.0902691666550826, "median": 6.663567545393273, "p_loss": 29.175, "p_ge20": 4.825, "p_tp1": 68.77499999999999, "p_tp2": 29.349999999999998, "p_stop_before_tp1": 26.450000000000003, "p_be_exit": 38.925, "cvar5": -23.393731019337064, "worst5": -22.651089708670156, "best95": 19.83723015559648 }, "hypothetical_target": false, "better": false, "note": "Chandelier Exit = най-висок максимум за 22 дни − 2.5×ATR(14). След TP1 (продава се 35%) стопът на останалите 65% се вдига на WAP+1% (Free Ride) и следва Chandelier. В симулацията ATR е приближен с текущия ATR% от цената." }, "scanner": { "passed": false, "reasons": [ "MoS -74% < 20%", "Piotroski 4.0 < 7" ], "result": null }, "macro": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "points": 0, "max_points": 5, "items": [ { "key": "curve", "name": "Крива на доходността 10Y−2Y", "value": 0.32, "unit": "п.п.", "points": 0, "text": "Плоска крива – неутрално" }, { "key": "liquidity", "name": "Нетна ликвидност на Fed (баланс − TGA − RRP)", "value": 5745.732, "unit": "млрд $", "change13w": -79.10599999999977, "points": -1, "text": "Ликвидността пада (-79 млрд за 13 седмици)", "series": { "dates": [ "2025-11-05", "2025-11-12", "2025-11-19", "2025-11-26", "2025-12-03", "2025-12-10", "2025-12-17", "2025-12-24", "2025-12-31", "2026-01-07", "2026-01-14", "2026-01-21", "2026-01-28", "2026-02-04", "2026-02-11", "2026-02-18", "2026-02-25", "2026-03-04", "2026-03-11", "2026-03-18", "2026-03-25", "2026-04-01", "2026-04-08", "2026-04-15", "2026-04-22", "2026-04-29", "2026-05-06", "2026-05-13", "2026-05-20", "2026-05-27", "2026-06-03", "2026-06-10", "2026-06-17", "2026-06-24", "2026-07-01", "2026-07-08", "2026-07-15", "2026-07-22", "2026-07-29", "2026-08-05", "2026-08-12", "2026-08-19", "2026-08-26", "2026-09-02", "2026-09-09", "2026-09-16", "2026-09-23", "2026-09-30", "2026-10-07", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-21", "2026-10-28" ], "values": [ 5618.9, 5620.8, 5612.2, 5646.8, 5596.1, 5675.3, 5713.4, 5739.3, 5697.3, 5772.9, 5799.3, 5712.0, 5663.4, 5694.7, 5706.0, 5699.8, 5725.0, 5796.0, 5807.6, 5802.2, 5782.3, 5825.5, 5945.3, 5954.1, 5700.9, 5717.3, 5830.1, 5886.2, 5907.5, 5872.2, 5833.7, 5896.9, 5848.9, 5812.4, 5843.3, 5958.2, 5986.7, 5917.4, 5824.8, 5839.6, 5795.3, 5791.8, 5779.5, 5768.7, 5856.9, 5864.1, 5770.2, 5782.8, 5865.0, 5872.1, 5801.4, 5745.7 ] } }, { "key": "vix", "name": "VIX (индекс на страха)", "value": 20.799999237060547, "unit": "", "points": 0, "text": "Повишена тревожност" }, { "key": "term", "name": "VIX term structure (VIX/VIX3M)", "value": 0.9765258207554283, "unit": "", "points": 0, "text": "Плоска структура" }, { "key": "trend", "name": "S&P 500 спрямо SMA200", "value": 3.4922766614116085, "unit": "%", "points": 1, "text": "Над 200-дневната средна – възходящ режим" } ], "required_mos": 25, "advice": "Смесени сигнали – стандартен размер на позициите и MoS ≥ 25%.", "risk_free": { "t_bill_3m": 4.029999732971191, "t_note_10y": 4.960000038146973 }, "stock": { "mos": -73.92764465420004, "required_mos": 25, "passes": false, "beta": 2.247, "beta_fits": true }, "note": "Режимът е правило върху 5 публични индикатора (FRED, Yahoo) – ориентир, не прогноза за пазара. Нетната ликвидност е приближена: WALCL − TGA − RRP." }, "benchmark": { "indices": { "SPY": { "name": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "corr": 0.6886400584365594, "r2": 0.4742251300835079, "idio_share": 52.57748699164922, "vol_stock": 39.44998807457576, "vol_index": 14.722908571492294, "exp_stock": 11.216381509362506, "exp_index": 10.394482720721543, "p_beat_index": 42.045, "p_beat_rf": 47.72, "exp_excess": 0.8218987886409689, "p_excess_10": 31.995, "p_lag_10": 45.425, "sharpe_stock": 0.15306800779180835, "sharpe_index": 0.33960680905683355 }, "VWCE.DE": { "name": "FTSE All-World (VWCE)", "corr": 0.553505986110485, "r2": 0.30636887666014034, "idio_share": 69.36311233398597, "vol_stock": 39.44998807457576, "vol_index": 13.145620702950572, "exp_stock": 11.219977558709804, "exp_index": 9.878381970339479, "p_beat_index": 42.9, "p_beat_rf": 47.68, "exp_excess": 1.341595588370311, "p_excess_10": 33.269999999999996, "p_lag_10": 45.53, "sharpe_stock": 0.15306800779180835, "sharpe_index": 0.34231932456334774 } }, "hurdle": { "rf_pct": 4.960000038146973, "spread_vs_rf_lo": 15.039999961853027, "spread_vs_rf_hi": 35.03999996185303, "market_expected": 9.960000038146974, "plan_expected_net": 1.4175374884732457, "plan_p_ge20": 10.18, "alpha_needed": 10.039999961853026, "plan_edge": -8.54246254967373 }, "verdict": [ "53% от риска на акцията е специфичен за компанията (не се обяснява от пазара) – това е рискът, за който трябва да бъдете възнаградени.", "Шанс акцията да победи S&P 500 за 12 месеца: 42% (очаквано превъзходство +0.8 п.п.); шанс да изостане с повече от 10 п.п.: 45%.", "Планът за 1–2 сделки има очаквана нетна печалба +1.4% срещу пазарна алтернатива ≈ 10.0% и безрискова доходност 5.0% – липсва преимущество от -8.5 п.п." ], "worth": false, "note": "Симулацията е двумерен GBM с историческа корелация и вол. за последните 2 г.; очакваната доходност на акцията е от модела за прогноза, на индекса – CAPM (rf + премия за риск)." }, "tranchetest": { "available": true, "summary": { "n": 674, "years": 27.734126984126984, "mean": 3.9347356793984387, "median": 8.226346598450084, "win": 69.28783382789318, "p_stop": 28.931750741839764, "p_tp2": 59.495548961424326, "p_ge20": 16.765578635014837, "worst": -43.94264538193073, "best": 54.28807054561145, "p_t2": 57.566765578635014, "p_t3": 39.16913946587537 }, "crises": [ { "label": "COVID срив (фев–мар 2020)", "n": 3, "mean": -9.726655170975757, "worst": -23.046824567205505, "p_stop": 66.66666666666666 }, { "label": "Инфлационен спад (2022)", "n": 12, "mean": -18.503099919105164, "worst": -24.781346553695204, "p_stop": 100.0 }, { "label": "Финансова криза (2008)", "n": 22, "mean": -17.393415659654508, "worst": -42.629486480118594, "p_stop": 95.45454545454545 }, { "label": "Dot-com (2000–2001)", "n": 28, "mean": 0.8791472671095191, "worst": -27.358593485738105, "p_stop": 42.857142857142854 } ], "scenarios": [ { "name": "Базов сценарий", "mu": 10.998531120132881, "vol": 37.00694544885607, "expected": 1.2284936348496551, "p_stop": 31.77, "p_tp2": 51.04, "p_tp1": 67.95, "p_loss": 35.27, "cvar5": -23.547069340148667, "worst5": -22.75903709854823, "stop_before_tp": 31.859205776173283 }, { "name": "Висока волатилност (×1.5)", "mu": 10.998531120132881, "vol": 55.5104181732841, "expected": -0.7374862952945626, "p_stop": 45.540000000000006, "p_tp2": 52.7, "p_tp1": 64.64, "p_loss": 44.72, "cvar5": -25.07288686990313, "worst5": -23.91750365834183, "stop_before_tp": 41.3323652205482 }, { "name": "Мечи тренд (−15% годишно)", "mu": -15.0, "vol": 37.00694544885607, "expected": -6.5727340536144006, "p_stop": 54.65, "p_tp2": 30.2, "p_tp1": 47.69, "p_loss": 58.68, "cvar5": -23.889880414495842, "worst5": -23.19922458368981, "stop_before_tp": 53.40042993941763 }, { "name": "Кризисен (вол. ×2, −25% годишно)", "mu": -25.0, "vol": 74.01389089771214, "expected": -5.237644062417846, "p_stop": 58.69, "p_tp2": 41.24, "p_tp1": 54.120000000000005, "p_loss": 57.29, "cvar5": -26.786651402444722, "worst5": -25.286584839759954, 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