{ "symbol": "ABEA.DE", "fx": { "cur": "EUR", "eurusd": 1.1198208332061768, "to_usd": 1.1198208332061768, "to_eur": 1.0 }, "analysis": { "levels": { "support": [], "resistance": [ 317.70001220703125, 323.1499938964844, 323.75 ], "sma50": 296.4060018920898, "sma200": 294.9907500457764, "low52": 231.8000030517578, "high52": 350.79998779296875, "bb_lower": 246.46596928342097, "bb_mid": 293.5775001525879, "zones": [ { "name": "Агресивно натрупване", "rule": "MoS > +30%", "price_max": 105.30792508345836, "color": "g" }, { "name": "Натрупване (BUY)", "rule": "MoS ≥ +20%", "price_max": 120.35191438109528, "color": "g" }, { "name": "Задържане / DCA", "rule": "−10% ≤ MoS ≤ +10%", "price_max": 165.48388227400602, "price_min": 135.3959036787322, "color": "y" }, { "name": "Частична печалба", "rule": "цена > FV +25%", "price_min": 188.04986622046135, "color": "r" }, { "name": "Изход / хеджиране", "rule": "цена > FV +40%", "price_min": 210.61585016691672, "color": "r" } ] }, "strategies": [ { "key": "value", "name": "Стойностна (Value / Margin of Safety)", "description": "Купува се със защитен марж под справедливата цена и се държи до сближаване. Дълъг хоризонт, малко сделки.", "horizon_months": 24, "entry": 120.35191438109528, "stop": 90.26393578582146, "target": 150.4398929763691, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Изчакайте цена ≤ 120.35 (MoS ≥ 20%). Сега MoS е -65%.", "trigger": 120.35191438109528, "stats": { "p_fill": 0.22833333333333333, "p_target": 0.3175182481751825, "p_stop": 0.34890510948905107, "p_open": 0.33357664233576645, "exp_return": -1.566677065454938, "kelly": 0.0, "rr": 0.9999999999999996 }, "risk": "Нисък–Среден" }, { "key": "trend", "name": "Тренд / Momentum (Trend Following)", "description": "Купува се в потвърден възходящ тренд, с плаващ stop на 2.5×ATR и цел 2R. Средносрочно, повече сделки, по-ниска успеваемост, по-висок коефициент печалба/загуба.", "horizon_months": 6, "entry": 248.9499969482422, "stop": 228.233362385738, "target": 290.3832660732506, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Няма потвърден възходящ тренд (изисква 50>200 SMA, цена>200 SMA, ADX>20).", "trigger": 294.9907500457764, "stats": { "p_fill": 1.0, "p_target": 0.32083333333333336, "p_stop": 0.6703333333333333, "p_open": 0.008833333333333334, "exp_return": -0.22270451112135278, "kelly": 0.0, "rr": 2.0 }, "risk": "Среден–Висок" }, { "key": "reversion", "name": "Контрариан / Mean Reversion (краткосрочен swing)", "description": "Купува се препродадена акция около подкрепа и се продава при връщане към средната. Кратък хоризонт, строг stop.", "horizon_months": 3, "entry": 248.9499969482422, "stop": 232.37668929823883, "target": 293.5775001525879, "applicable": true, "status_reason": "RSI/Болинджър показват препродаденост.", "trigger": 248.9499969482422, "stats": { "p_fill": 1.0, "p_target": 0.231, "p_stop": 0.679, "p_open": 0.09, "exp_return": 0.06879658815588174, "kelly": 0.0, "rr": 2.692733650203897 }, "risk": "Висок" }, { "key": "dca", "name": "Редовно натрупване (DCA) + доход", "description": "Равни месечни вноски за 12 месеца – изглажда входа и намалява риска от лош момент. Подходящо при несигурност.", "horizon_months": 12, "entry": 247.2432174535626, "stop": null, "target": null, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Препоръчва се само с половин размер: акцията е силно надценена (MoS < −25%).", "trigger": null, "risk": "Нисък–Среден", "stats": { "avg_cost": 247.2432174535626, "p_profit": 41.66666666666667, "exp_return": -3.00367427013738, "worst5": -35.59793522023451, "dividend_yield": 0.3052821889200535, "tranches": 12 } } ], "scenarios": { "1": { "exp_price": 247.8294246120898, "exp_return": -0.4501194416103369, "p_profit": 46.0625, "p_loss20": 2.075, "p_gain30": 0.43750000000000006, "var95": -16.457681302498774, "cvar95": -19.988571266759696, "annualized": -5.2696985142745785 }, "3": { "exp_price": 246.74705920868234, "exp_return": -0.8848916515624087, "p_profit": 44.6375, "p_loss20": 14.224999999999998, "p_gain30": 5.825, "var95": -27.276780211443874, "cvar95": -32.473740740126814, "annualized": -3.492861158837335 }, "6": { "exp_price": 245.59120472692524, "exp_return": -1.3491834755937926, "p_profit": 42.8375, "p_loss20": 24.575, "p_gain30": 11.4625, "var95": -38.12286295970133, "cvar95": -43.91664302425114, "annualized": -2.6801639906794406 }, "12": { "exp_price": 245.69527178209796, "exp_return": -1.3073810829653836, "p_profit": 41.5375, "p_loss20": 34.35, "p_gain30": 17.25, "var95": -49.77603243287575, "cvar95": -56.89534729282231, "annualized": -1.3073810829653865 }, "24": { "exp_price": 246.49057402147608, "exp_return": -0.9879184402149009, "p_profit": 38.9375, "p_loss20": 44.025, "p_gain30": 21.5375, "var95": -62.97059969194127, "cvar95": -69.73235138664855, "annualized": -0.49518526232757987 }, "36": { "exp_price": 244.9371203294805, "exp_return": -1.6119207342653499, "p_profit": 36.8125, "p_loss20": 49.025, "p_gain30": 22.05, "var95": -71.85150685137015, "cvar95": -77.96592211053579, "annualized": -0.5402200330440254 } }, "risk": { "ann_return": 23.63155978412114, "vol": 32.3778690062513, "sharpe": 0.6495659050340994, "sortino": 0.9089523744376177, "max_drawdown": -33.784875442342155, "calmar": 0.6994715675199444, "var95_1m": -12.404143866540796, "cvar95_1m": -15.62912090301892, "beta": 1.226 }, "confidence": { "label": "ниска", "why": "моделите се разминават силно (разлика 281% от медианата)." }, "narrative": [ { "kind": "val", "text": "Според ансамбъла от 4 модела акцията е силно надценена (справедлива цена ≈ 150.44, MoS -65%). Увереност в оценката: ниска – моделите се разминават силно (разлика 281% от медианата)." }, { "kind": "val", "text": "EV/EBITDA е 10.5, P/E 15.1, PEG 0.99." }, { "kind": "quality", "text": "ROIC е 52.4% срещу цена на капитала ≈ 8.7% – бизнесът създава стойност." }, { "kind": "quality", "text": "Оперативният марж е 33%, нетният 50%, FCF марж 4%." }, { "kind": "safety", "text": "Финансова устойчивост: Piotroski 6.0/9, Altman Z 14.8" }, { "kind": "safety", "text": "Нетният дълг е 0.0× EBITDA, лихвите са покрити 95×." }, { "kind": "growth", "text": "Приходите растат със 13% годишно (3 г.), печалбата на акция със 33%." }, { "kind": "tech", "text": "Технически: RSI 22, цената е -16.0% спрямо SMA50 и -15.6% спрямо SMA200, ADX 32." }, { "kind": "risk", "text": "Риск: годишна волатилност 32%, максимален спад за 2 г. -34%, VaR 95% за месец -12% (CVaR -16%)." }, { "kind": "warn", "text": "Пазарът залага ~43% годишен ръст на FCF срещу исторически ~7% – риск от разочарование." }, { "kind": "warn", "text": "Активни сигнали за продажба: mos_lt_-25." } ], "verdict": { "score": 39.5, "action": "ИЗБЯГВАЙТЕ / НАМАЛЕТЕ – надценена или с червен флаг", "tone": "r" }, "history": { "dates": [ "2024-11-06", "2024-11-07", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-11", "2024-11-12", "2024-11-13", "2024-11-14", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-18", "2024-11-19", "2024-11-20", "2024-11-21", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-25", "2024-11-26", "2024-11-27", "2024-11-28", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-02", "2024-12-03", "2024-12-04", "2024-12-05", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-09", "2024-12-10", "2024-12-11", "2024-12-12", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-16", "2024-12-17", "2024-12-18", "2024-12-19", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-23", "2024-12-27", "2024-12-30", "2025-01-02", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-06", "2025-01-07", "2025-01-08", "2025-01-09", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-13", "2025-01-14", "2025-01-15", "2025-01-16", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-20", "2025-01-21", "2025-01-22", "2025-01-23", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-27", "2025-01-28", "2025-01-29", "2025-01-30", "2025-01-31", 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дисквалифициращи рискове", "ok": true, "detail": "Altman, Beneish, дълг и капитализация – в норма" }, { "key": "entry", "name": "Сигнал за Транш 1 (MoS ≥ 20%, RSI < 40)", "ok": false, "detail": "RSI 22, MoS -65%" }, { "key": "real", "name": "Нетна очаквана печалба ≥ +8% и стоп ≤ 50%", "ok": false, "detail": "след такси и данък: -2.3% от капитала; стоп в 59% от пътищата" }, { "key": "edge", "name": "Побеждава пазара (rf + ERP)", "ok": false, "detail": "очаквана нетна -2.3% срещу пазарна ≈ 7.6% годишно → преимущество -9.9 п.п." } ], "passed": 2, "disqualifiers": [], "catalysts": [ { "key": "margin", "text": "Цикличен обрат / разширяване на оперативния марж", "directional": true }, { "key": "oversold", "text": "Препродаденост (RSI 22, позиция в 52-седм. диапазон 9%)", "directional": true } ], "tranches": [ { "n": 1, "alloc": 0.3, "price": 248.9499969482422, "trigger": "MoS ≥ 20%, катализатор, RSI(14) < 40", "goal": "Първоначална експозиция" }, { "n": 2, "alloc": 0.4, "price": 233.5245967779533, "trigger": "Тест на резервно ниво −6.2% (няма подкрепа в диапазона)", "goal": "Сваля WAP към локалното дъно" }, { "n": 3, "alloc": 0.3, "price": 221.52706331217306, "trigger": "Капитулация – резервно ниво −11.0% (няма подкрепа в диапазона); VIX скок / фалшив негатив без промяна в тезата", "goal": "Максимален ефект върху средната цена" } ], "wap": { "all": 234.0725739010328, "t1_t2": 239.8950271654406, "t1": 248.9499969482422 }, "exits": { "tp1": 280.88708868123933, "tp1_pct": 20.0, "tp2": 327.70160346144587, "tp2_pct": 39.99999999999999, "stop": 201.84242357567229, "stop_pct": 13.769298037875895, "fair_value": 150.4398929763691 }, "upside": -0.35729380649278486, "rr": -2.594858543332848, "vix": { "last": 20.969999313354492, "avg20": 17.5800000667572, "spike": false }, "sim": { "expected": -2.2698689841036495, "median": -9.69747797709481, "p_profit": 43.54, "p_ge20": 8.58, "p_ge10": 19.2, "p_loss": 56.46, "p_stop": 58.599999999999994, "p_t2": 82.0, "p_t3": 72.26, 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}, "assumptions": { "commission": 0.1, "spread": 0.05, "fx": 0.0, "stop_slip": 0.3, "tax": 10.0, "market_expected": 7.6, "side_cost": 0.15 }, "hypothetical_target": true, "edge": -9.869868984103649, "entry_needed": null, "steps": [ "Не влизайте.", "Причина: справедливата цена е под пазарната (MoS < 0).", "Ако акцията ви интересува, проследете я за промяна във фундамента." ], "note": "Стопът се избира от три варианта по най-добро съотношение очаквана нетна печалба / опашков риск (CVaR 5%). Нивата на Транш 2 и 3 са пропорционални на стопа, за да остават над него. Всички резултати са след такси, плъзгане и данък. Катализаторите са автоматични прокси – потвърдете ги с новини и отчети." }, "fan": [ { "m": 0, "p10": 248.9499969482422, "p25": 248.9499969482422, "p50": 248.9499969482422, "p75": 248.9499969482422, "p90": 248.9499969482422 }, { "m": 1, "p10": 215.4426262771023, "p25": 229.76220309747293, "p50": 246.79036407425616, "p75": 265.0805179390874, "p90": 282.69931931468045 }, { "m": 2, "p10": 201.8880117209737, "p25": 221.1227821158144, "p50": 244.64946594302, "p75": 270.67930591998584, "p90": 296.4681294148724 }, { "m": 3, "p10": 191.67933716626862, "p25": 214.2796065258293, "p50": 242.5271400312687, "p75": 274.49842103689184, "p90": 306.8636114946746 }, { "m": 4, "p10": 183.39932145049508, "p25": 208.58910906467045, "p50": 240.65276325653312, "p75": 277.6451403560553, "p90": 315.7795350875254 }, { "m": 5, "p10": 176.32270882174228, "p25": 203.61020180519276, "p50": 238.90683619923257, "p75": 280.3222818733599, "p90": 323.70462525294903 }, { "m": 6, "p10": 170.12261103420678, "p25": 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It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. The Google Services segment provides products and services, including ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. It is also involved in the sale of apps and in-app purchases and digital content in Google Play and YouTube; and devices, as well as the provision of YouTube consumer subscription services, such as YouTube TV, YouTube Music and Premium, NFL Sunday Ticket, and Google One. The Google Cloud segment offers consumption-based fees and subscriptions for AI solutions, including AI infrastructure, Vertex AI platform, and Gemini enterprise. It also provides cybersecurity, and data and analytics services; Google Workspace that include cloud-based communication and collaboration tools for enterprises, such as Calendar, Gmail, Docs, Drive, and Meet; and other enterprise services. The Other Bets segment sells transportation and internet services. Alphabet Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.", "website": "https://abc.xyz", "employees": 204757, "country": "United States", "city": "Mountain View", "exchange": "XETRA", "industry": "Internet Content & Information", "market_cap": 3060591230976.0, "target_low": null, "target_mean": null, "target_high": null, "recommendation": "none", "analysts": null, "beta": 1.226, "next_earnings": 1793205000, "financials": { "years": [ "2025", "2024", "2023", "2022" ], "revenue": [ 359732550689.22046, 312566076336.62225, 274502844052.07635, 252572549888.134 ], "operating_income": [ 115231827861.42825, 100364270750.2842, 75273649562.71649, 66833906499.62425 ], "net_income": [ 118027810882.32994, 89405374668.35976, 65898935492.63477, 53554996400.35629 ], "fcf": [ 65426538489.10332, 64978252485.752106, 62059035463.92918, 53588930400.60997, null ], "eps": [ 9.653330072164536, 7.179720053672789, 5.179400038719177, 4.072080030441284 ], "total_debt": [ 52946863395.81013, 20158582150.69771, 24219053181.052208, 26503347198.1287, null ], "equity": [ 370831647772.19293, 290300014170.1698, 253057448891.7589, 228736593709.94568, null ] } }, "eu_listing": null, "interpretation": { "factors": { "1": { "name": "Trailing P/E", "rating": "g", "text": "Умерена оценка спрямо печалбите" }, "3": { "name": "PEG Ratio", "rating": "g", "text": "Под 1 – растежът е „евтин“ спрямо цената" }, "4": { "name": "Price to Book", "rating": "y", "text": "Висока премия – оправдана само при висок ROE" }, "5": { "name": "Price to Tangible Book", "rating": "r", "text": "Цената е далеч над материалните активи – стойността е в нематериални неща (марка, софтуер)" }, "6": { "name": "Price to Sales", "rating": "y", "text": "Висока – изисква високи маржове" }, "7": { "name": "Forward P/S", "rating": "y", "text": "Висока оценка спрямо очакваните приходи" }, "8": { "name": "EV/EBITDA", "rating": "g", "text": "Умерена оценка" }, "9": { "name": "EV/EBIT", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерена до висока оценка" }, "10": { "name": "EV/FCF", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа спрямо свободния кеш" }, "11": { "name": "P/FCF", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа спрямо свободния кеш" }, "12": { "name": "P/OCF", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерена до висока" }, "13": { "name": "Earnings Yield − 10Y", "rating": "g", "text": "Добра премия над безрисковата доходност" }, "14": { "name": "FCF Yield", "rating": "r", "text": "Много нисък кеш доход спрямо цената" }, "15": { "name": "EV/Invested Capital", "rating": "r", "text": "Много голяма премия над вложения капитал" }, "16": { "name": "Gross Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Много висок брутен марж – типичен за ров (софтуер, марка, патенти)" }, "17": { "name": "Operating Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен оперативен марж" }, "18": { "name": "Net Profit Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен нетен марж" }, "19": { "name": "EBITDA Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Много висока кеш-генерираща способност" }, "20": { "name": "FCF Margin", "rating": "y", "text": "Нисък дял на продажбите се превръща в свободен кеш" }, "21": { "name": "ROIC", "rating": "g", "text": "Изключителна възвръщаемост – типичен знак за ров" }, "22": { "name": "ROE", "rating": "g", "text": "Много висок ROE – проверете дали не е раздут от дълг или обратни изкупувания" }, "23": { "name": "ROA", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен ROA" }, "24": { "name": "ROCE", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен ROCE" }, "25": { "name": "Asset Turnover", "rating": "g", "text": "Нормален оборот на активите" }, "27": { "name": "DSO", "rating": "y", "text": "Нормален срок за събиране" }, "28": { "name": "Cash Conversion Cycle", "rating": "g", "text": "Кратък цикъл на оборотния капитал" }, "29": { "name": "Revenue per Employee", "rating": "g", "text": "Много висока продуктивност на служител" }, "30": { "name": "CFO / Net Income", "rating": "r", "text": "Слаба кеш подкрепа на печалбата – внимание за качеството на печалбата" }, "31": { "name": "Current Ratio", "rating": "g", "text": "Комфортна краткосрочна ликвидност" }, "32": { "name": "Quick Ratio", "rating": "g", "text": "Силна бърза ликвидност" }, "33": { "name": "Cash Ratio", "rating": "g", "text": "Много пари – голям буфер" }, "34": { "name": "Debt/Equity", "rating": "g", "text": "Ниска задлъжнялост" }, "35": { "name": "Debt/Capital", "rating": "g", "text": "Малък дял на дълга във финансирането" }, "36": { "name": "Net Debt/EBITDA", "rating": "g", "text": "Комфортен дълг" }, "37": { "name": "Interest Coverage", "rating": "g", "text": "Лихвите са покрити многократно" }, "38": { "name": "Cash Flow to Debt", "rating": "g", "text": "Дългът може да се изплати за по-малко от ~3 години" }, "39": { "name": "Piotroski F-Score", "rating": "y", "text": "Смесена фундаментална динамика (4–6)" }, "40": { "name": "Altman Z-Score", "rating": "g", "text": "Безопасна зона – нисък риск от фалит" }, "41": { "name": "Beneish M-Score", "rating": "g", "text": "Няма признаци за манипулация на отчетите" }, "42": { "name": "Net Working Capital", "rating": "g", "text": "Положителен оборотен капитал – буфер" }, "44": { "name": "Effective Borrowing Cost", "rating": "y", "text": "Нормално финансиране" }, "45": { "name": "Synthetic Credit Rating", "rating": "g", "text": "Инвестиционен клас (по покритие на лихвите)" }, "46": { "name": "3Y Revenue CAGR", "rating": "g", "text": "Добър ръст на приходите" }, "48": { "name": "3Y EPS CAGR", "rating": "g", "text": "Много бърз ръст на печалбата на акция" }, "50": { "name": "3Y FCF CAGR", "rating": "y", "text": "Бавен ръст на свободния кеш" }, "52": { "name": "Operating Income Growth", "rating": "g", "text": "Растяща оперативна печалба" }, "53": { "name": "CapEx Trend", "rating": "y", "text": "Рязко растящи инвестиции – следете връщането им (ROIC)" }, "54": { "name": "Margin Expansion (bps/yr)", "rating": "g", "text": "Маржът се разширява – оперативен ливъридж" }, "56": { "name": "Dividend Yield", "rating": "y", "text": "Символична дивидентна доходност" }, "57": { "name": "Dividend Payout", "rating": "g", "text": "Устойчив дял на печалбата за дивидент" }, "58": { "name": "FCF Payout", "rating": "g", "text": "Дивидентът е сигурно покрит от кеша" }, "61": { "name": "Buyback Yield", "rating": "y", "text": "Малки обратни изкупувания" }, "62": { "name": "Total Shareholder Yield", "rating": "g", "text": "Добра обща доходност за акционерите" }, "63": { "name": "Net Share Dilution", "rating": "g", "text": "Броят акции намалява – акционерите притежават по-голям дял" }, "64": { "name": "SBC % of Revenue", "rating": "y", "text": "Значителен разход за акции като заплащане" }, "65": { "name": "Reinvestment Rate", "rating": "g", "text": "Умерено реинвестиране" }, "66": { "name": "RSI (14)", "rating": "g", "text": "Препродадена – възможен краткосрочен отскок" }, "67": { "name": "MACD hist (% of price)", "rating": "r", "text": "Импулсът е отрицателен" }, "68": { "name": "Price vs SMA50", "rating": "r", "text": "Цената е значително под 50-дневната средна" }, "69": { "name": "Price vs SMA200", "rating": "r", "text": "Значително под 200-дневната средна – дългосрочен мечи тренд" }, "70": { "name": "Golden/Death Cross", "rating": "g", "text": "Golden Cross – 50-дневната е над 200-дневната" }, "71": { "name": "ATR % of price", "rating": "r", "text": "Висока дневна волатилност – по-широк стоп и по-малка позиция" }, "72": { "name": "Bollinger %B", "rating": "g", "text": "На/под долната лента – крайно ниско за 20 дни" }, "73": { "name": "VWAP deviation", "rating": "y", "text": "Под средната претеглена цена – продавачите доминират" }, "74": { "name": "Relative Volume", "rating": "y", "text": "Необичайно висок обем – нещо се случва (новини/институции)" }, "75": { "name": "OBV trend", "rating": "r", "text": "Обемът излиза – признаци на разпределение" }, "76": { "name": "ADX (14)", "rating": "g", "text": "Ясен тренд" }, "77": { "name": "Stochastic %K", "rating": "g", "text": "Препродадена в краткосрочен план" }, "78": { "name": "52-Week Range Percentile", "rating": "y", "text": "Близо до 52-седмичното дъно – проверете дали е възможност или падащ нож" }, "79": { "name": "Historical Volatility 30D", "rating": "r", "text": "Висока волатилност – очаквайте големи колебания" }, "80": { "name": "Downside Deviation", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерени отрицателни колебания" }, "81": { "name": "Bid-Ask Spread %", "rating": "y", "text": "Нормална ликвидност" }, "84": { "name": "Institutional Ownership %", "rating": "g", "text": "Добро институционално присъствие" }, "86": { "name": "Insider Ownership %", "rating": "g", "text": "Вътрешните лица имат значителен дял – съвпадащи интереси" }, "87": { "name": "Insider Net Buy/Sell L3M", "rating": "g", "text": "Нетни покупки от вътрешни лица – положителен сигнал" }, "92": { "name": "EPS Growth Forecast", "rating": "r", "text": "Очаква се спад на печалбата" }, "93": { "name": "Revenue Growth Forecast", "rating": "g", "text": "Силен очакван ръст на приходите" }, "96": { "name": "WACC", "rating": "y", "text": "Нормална цена на капитала" }, "97": { "name": "EVA spread (ROIC−WACC)", "rating": "g", "text": "Създава голяма стойност над цената на капитала" }, "98": { "name": "Beta", "rating": "r", "text": "По-рискова от пазара – усилва колебанията" } }, "modules": { "1": { "summary": "Смесена картина с превес на предупрежденията: 4 благоприятни, 5 неутрални, 5 тревожни от 14 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 4, "y": 5, "r": 5 }, "tone": "y", "name": "Оценка и мултиплекси", "meaning": "Показва колко скъпа е акцията спрямо печалби, приходи и кеш. Високи стойности значат, че очакванията вече са в цената." }, "2": { "summary": "Предимно благоприятна картина: 11 благоприятни, 2 неутрални, 1 тревожни от 14 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 11, "y": 2, "r": 1 }, "tone": "g", "name": "Рентабилност и ефективност", "meaning": "Показва колко ефективно бизнесът превръща приходите и капитала в печалба и кеш – основа на „рова“." }, "3": { "summary": "Предимно благоприятна картина: 12 благоприятни, 2 неутрални, 0 тревожни от 14 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 12, "y": 2, "r": 0 }, "tone": "g", "name": "Баланс и ликвидност", "meaning": "Показва дали компанията може да издържи труден период – ликвидност, дълг и риск от фалит/манипулации." }, "4": { "summary": "Предимно благоприятна картина: 4 благоприятни, 2 неутрални, 0 тревожни от 6 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 4, "y": 2, "r": 0 }, "tone": "g", "name": "Исторически растеж", "meaning": "Показва как са растели приходите, печалбата и кешът – дали бизнесът се развива или стагнира." }, "5": { "summary": "Предимно благоприятна картина: 5 благоприятни, 3 неутрални, 0 тревожни от 8 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 5, "y": 3, "r": 0 }, "tone": "g", "name": "Възвръщаемост за акционерите", "meaning": "Показва колко от създадената стойност стига до акционерите – дивиденти, обратни изкупувания, размиване." }, "6": { "summary": "Предимно тревожна картина: 5 благоприятни, 4 неутрални, 6 тревожни от 15 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 5, "y": 4, "r": 6 }, "tone": "r", "name": "Технически индикатори", "meaning": "Показва какво прави цената сега – тренд, импулс и волатилност. Важи за тайминг, не за качеството на бизнеса." }, "7": { "summary": "Предимно благоприятна картина: 3 благоприятни, 1 неутрални, 0 тревожни от 4 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 3, "y": 1, "r": 0 }, "tone": "g", "name": "Пазарна структура", "meaning": "Показва кой държи и търгува акцията – ликвидност, къси позиции, институции и вътрешни лица." }, "8": { "summary": "Предимно тревожна картина: 2 благоприятни, 1 неутрални, 2 тревожни от 5 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 2, "y": 1, "r": 2 }, "tone": "r", "name": "Прогнози и макро", "meaning": "Показва какво очаква пазарът за бъдещето – прогнози на анализатори, цена на капитала и чувствителност." } }, "insights": [ { "kind": "risk", "text": "Печалбата е слабо подкрепена с кеш (CFO/Net Income 0.76) – проверете начисленията и вземанията." }, { "kind": "good", "text": "PEG 0.99 при ръст на EPS 33% – растежът не е надплатен." }, { "kind": "good", "text": "Оперативен ливъридж: маржът се разширява (~186 б.п./год.) заедно с ръст на оперативната печалба." } ], "strengths": [ { "id": 18, "name": "Net Profit Margin", "text": "Отличен нетен марж", "value": 50.03077915847658 }, { "id": 19, "name": "EBITDA Margin", "text": "Много висока кеш-генерираща способност", "value": 67.65216579140645 }, { "id": 21, "name": "ROIC", "text": "Изключителна възвръщаемост – типичен знак за ров", "value": 52.3748226551064 }, { "id": 22, "name": "ROE", "text": "Много висок ROE – проверете дали не е раздут от дълг или обратни изкупувания", "value": 56.757492203773495 }, { "id": 23, "name": "ROA", "text": "Отличен ROA", "value": 39.59373808335896 }, { "id": 24, "name": "ROCE", "text": "Отличен ROCE", "value": 59.02370588139752 } ], "risks": [ { "id": 10, "name": "EV/FCF", "text": "Скъпа спрямо свободния кеш", "value": 170.14036475730487 }, { "id": 11, "name": "P/FCF", "text": "Скъпа спрямо свободния кеш", "value": 173.56123881412364 }, { "id": 92, "name": "EPS Growth Forecast", "text": "Очаква се спад на печалбата", "value": -25.3 }, { "id": 14, "name": "FCF Yield", "text": "Много нисък кеш доход спрямо цената", "value": 0.5761655118577227 }, { "id": 30, "name": "CFO / Net Income", "text": "Слаба кеш подкрепа на печалбата – внимание за качеството на печалбата", "value": 0.7617970758695596 }, { "id": 75, "name": "OBV trend", "text": "Обемът излиза – признаци на разпределение", "value": -0.15193946634806849 } ], "counts": { "g": 46, "y": 20, "r": 14 } }, "modules": { "quarterly": { "available": true, "quarters": [ { "date": "2026-09-30", "revenue": 113926261851.66837, "gross": 68009094508.4095, "operating": 36234368270.87402, "net": 23635924176.692963, "ebitda": 37230063278.31745, "eps": 1.8931600141525269, "fcf": -8095045060.515404, "cfo": 37764970282.31621, "gross_m": 59.69571317714008, "op_m": 31.805105936022947, "net_m": 20.746686314931374, "fcf_m": -7.10551274916325, "rev_yoy": 24.652648857796123, "rev_qoq": 6.49520852115264, "eps_yoy": null }, { "date": "2026-06-30", "revenue": 106977828799.72458, "gross": 65950729493.021965, "operating": 36407610272.16911, "net": 100188349748.96909, "ebitda": 131391555982.23209, "eps": 8.135230060815811, "fcf": -5228515039.086342, "cfo": 34888617260.81371, "gross_m": 61.648969915523054, "op_m": 34.03285585495342, "net_m": 93.65337740826072, "fcf_m": -4.8874753748038335, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": 9.008517143481098, "eps_yoy": 294.37229437229433 }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "revenue": 98137128733.63495, "gross": 61282125458.1213, "operating": 35448528264.99939, "net": 55882154417.75322, "ebitda": 75393311563.61102, "eps": 4.56323003411293, "fcf": 9033588067.531586, "cfo": 40890470305.68123, "gross_m": 62.44540292640315, "op_m": 36.121423891679406, "net_m": 56.94292785906675, "fcf_m": 9.205066608429787, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": -3.4551827741612473, "eps_yoy": null }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "revenue": 101649297759.89056, "gross": 60779366454.36287, "operating": 32089062239.88533, "net": 30768315230.01194, "ebitda": 40591315303.44486, "eps": 2.518260018825531, "fcf": 21924043163.895607, "cfo": 46794986349.82109, "gross_m": 59.7931985697845, "op_m": 31.568405239438103, "net_m": 30.26908784228975, "fcf_m": 21.568317388363244, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": 11.219783870400413, "eps_yoy": null }, { "date": "2025-09-30", "revenue": 91394978683.23326, "gross": 54452461407.06539, "operating": 27886604208.46939, "net": 31236247233.510017, "ebitda": 44418713332.057, "eps": null, "fcf": 21843673163.294792, "cfo": 43233702323.19832, "gross_m": 59.579270318331936, "op_m": 30.512184159615423, "net_m": 34.177202821800556, "fcf_m": 23.900298985793288, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": null, "eps_yoy": null }, { "date": "2025-06-30", "revenue": null, "gross": null, "operating": null, "net": null, "ebitda": null, "eps": 2.062830015420914, "fcf": null, "cfo": null, "gross_m": null, "op_m": null, "net_m": null, "fcf_m": null, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": null, "eps_yoy": null }, { "date": "2025-03-31", "revenue": null, "gross": null, "operating": null, "net": null, "ebitda": null, "eps": null, "fcf": null, "cfo": null, "gross_m": null, "op_m": null, "net_m": null, "fcf_m": null, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": null, "eps_yoy": null } ], "earnings": [], "beat": { "n": 0, "beat_rate": null, "avg_surprise": null, "streak": 0 }, "reaction": { "avg_abs_move": null, "n": 0 }, "trends": { "revenue": 1, "op_margin": -1, "eps": 0, "fcf": -1 }, "score": 54.32632442889806, "label": "Смесен тримесечен импулс", "notes": [ "Приходите през последното тримесечие (2026-09-30) са +24.7% спрямо същото тримесечие миналата година и +6.5% спрямо предходното.", "Оперативният марж е 31.8% (-2.2 п.п. спрямо предходното тримесечие).", "Свободният кеш през тримесечието е -7% от приходите; FCF/нетна печалба = -0.34." ], "n_quarters": 7, "coverage_note": "Безплатният източник дава 5–7 тримесечия отчети (YoY е възможно само за най-новите 1–3), но до 24 тримесечия история на EPS изненадите." }, "orderflow": { "gex": { "available": false, "reason": "Няма опционна верига за този тикер (обикновено само US акции)." }, "ats": { "available": false, "reason": "FINRA ATS данни има само за американски тикери." }, "footprint": { "cmf20": -0.14186624058031258, "ad_slope": -0.1418662405803126, "accumulation_days": 2, "distribution_days": 2, "updown_vol": 0.5129717123919629 }, "signal": { "score": 1, "max": 5, "label": "Няма следа от натрупване", "reasons": [ "цената е в долната трета на 52-седмичния диапазон" ], "tranche2": false } }, "smartmoney": { "insiders": { "available": false, "reason": "Тикерът не е намерен в SEC (само US емитенти подават Form 4)." }, "darkpool": { "available": false, "reason": "Няма Polygon ключ. Добавете polygon_key в config.json (платен план Stocks Developer) за блокови сделки >$1M. Безплатният FINRA ATS дял е в модула „Институционален поток“." }, "score": { "value": 0, "accumulating": false, "signals": [], "sources": { "sec": false, "polygon": false, "finra_ats": false } } }, "catalysts": { "trackers": [ { "key": "operating_leverage", "name": "Operating Leverage Turning Point", "horizon": "1–2 тримесечия", "mechanism": "Приходите растат по-бързо от разходите; скок на оперативния марж над 200 б.п.", "status": "watch", "margin_now": 31.805105936022947, "margin_prev_year": 30.512184159615423, "delta_bps": 129.2921776407524, "revenue_growth": 24.652648857796123, "cost_growth": 22.3333052110577, "detail": "Оперативен марж 31.8% срещу 30.5% преди година (+129 б.п.); приходи +24.7% срещу разходи +22.3%." }, { "key": "capital_allocation", "name": "Capital Allocation Shift", "horizon": "3–6 месеца", "mechanism": "Прекратяване на разводняващи M&A и насочване на FCF към обратни изкупувания при P/E < 15.", "status": "watch", "pe": 15.10619, "buyback_to_fcf": 231.47313515977112, "mna_to_fcf": 8.061984098850457, "share_change": -1.0072885103595164, "buyback_yield": 1.3336683740064135, "detail": "Обратни изкупувания = 231% от FCF, M&A = 8% от FCF, P/E 15.1, брой акции -1.0% YoY." }, { "key": "spinoff", "name": "Corporate Spin-Off / Asset Carve-Out", "horizon": "6–12 месеца", "mechanism": "Отделяне на звено; пазарът премахва „конгломератната отстъпка“.", "status": "unknown", "detail": "Новините не са достъпни в момента.", "headlines": [] }, { "key": "squeeze", "name": "Short Squeeze / Fundamental De-risking", "horizon": "1–3 месеца", "mechanism": "Short float > 15%, Days to Cover > 5 + положителен отчет, който опровергава мечата теза.", "status": "none", "short_float": null, "days_to_cover": null, "last_surprise": null, "detail": "Няма данни за къси позиции." } ], "active": [], "events": [ { "type": "Месечен опционен падеж (OPEX)", "date": "2026-11-20", "extra": "Повишена волатилност около гама нивата", "days": 17 } ], "summary": "Няма напълно потвърден твърд катализатор – само индикации." }, "profitlock": { "rules": { "tp1_pct": 20.0, "sell_fraction": 35.0, "breakeven_plus": 1.0, "atr_mult": 2.5 }, "levels": { "wap": 234.0725739010328, "tp1": 280.88708868123933, "breakeven_stop": 236.41329964004314, "hh22": 323.1499938964844, "atr14": 8.28665382500168, "chandelier_now": 302.43335933398015, "initial_stop": 201.84242357567229, "tp2": 327.70160346144587 }, "baseline": { "expected": -2.128322684311029, "median": -9.250971341100717, "p_loss": 55.925000000000004, "p_ge20": 8.799999999999999, "p_tp1": 50.5, "p_tp2": 32.025, "p_stop_before_tp1": 48.325, "p_be_exit": 9.775, "cvar5": -17.52920648529607, "worst5": -16.741160395809057, "best95": 27.648635454383868 }, "locked": { "expected": -1.8993856624493728, "median": 3.3559550833469265, "p_loss": 48.9, "p_ge20": 5.65, "p_tp1": 50.5, "p_tp2": 16.650000000000002, "p_stop_before_tp1": 48.325, "p_be_exit": 33.625, "cvar5": -17.52920648529607, "worst5": -16.741160395809057, "best95": 20.298602599741535 }, "hypothetical_target": false, "better": true, "note": "Chandelier Exit = най-висок максимум за 22 дни − 2.5×ATR(14). След TP1 (продава се 35%) стопът на останалите 65% се вдига на WAP+1% (Free Ride) и следва Chandelier. В симулацията ATR е приближен с текущия ATR% от цената." }, "scanner": { "passed": false, "reasons": [ "MoS -65% < 20%", "Piotroski 6.0 < 7" ], "result": null }, "macro": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "points": 0, "max_points": 5, "items": [ { "key": "curve", "name": "Крива на доходността 10Y−2Y", "value": 0.32, "unit": "п.п.", "points": 0, "text": "Плоска крива – неутрално" }, { "key": "liquidity", "name": "Нетна ликвидност на Fed (баланс − TGA − RRP)", "value": 5745.732, "unit": "млрд $", "change13w": -79.10599999999977, "points": -1, "text": "Ликвидността пада (-79 млрд за 13 седмици)", "series": { "dates": [ "2025-11-05", "2025-11-12", "2025-11-19", "2025-11-26", "2025-12-03", "2025-12-10", "2025-12-17", "2025-12-24", "2025-12-31", "2026-01-07", "2026-01-14", "2026-01-21", "2026-01-28", "2026-02-04", "2026-02-11", "2026-02-18", "2026-02-25", "2026-03-04", "2026-03-11", "2026-03-18", "2026-03-25", "2026-04-01", "2026-04-08", "2026-04-15", "2026-04-22", "2026-04-29", "2026-05-06", "2026-05-13", "2026-05-20", "2026-05-27", "2026-06-03", "2026-06-10", "2026-06-17", "2026-06-24", "2026-07-01", "2026-07-08", "2026-07-15", "2026-07-22", "2026-07-29", "2026-08-05", "2026-08-12", "2026-08-19", "2026-08-26", "2026-09-02", "2026-09-09", "2026-09-16", "2026-09-23", "2026-09-30", "2026-10-07", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-21", "2026-10-28" ], "values": [ 5618.9, 5620.8, 5612.2, 5646.8, 5596.1, 5675.3, 5713.4, 5739.3, 5697.3, 5772.9, 5799.3, 5712.0, 5663.4, 5694.7, 5706.0, 5699.8, 5725.0, 5796.0, 5807.6, 5802.2, 5782.3, 5825.5, 5945.3, 5954.1, 5700.9, 5717.3, 5830.1, 5886.2, 5907.5, 5872.2, 5833.7, 5896.9, 5848.9, 5812.4, 5843.3, 5958.2, 5986.7, 5917.4, 5824.8, 5839.6, 5795.3, 5791.8, 5779.5, 5768.7, 5856.9, 5864.1, 5770.2, 5782.8, 5865.0, 5872.1, 5801.4, 5745.7 ] } }, { "key": "vix", "name": "VIX (индекс на страха)", "value": 20.959999084472656, "unit": "", "points": 0, "text": "Повишена тревожност" }, { "key": "term", "name": "VIX term structure (VIX/VIX3M)", "value": 0.9789817484284641, "unit": "", "points": 0, "text": "Плоска структура" }, { "key": "trend", "name": "S&P 500 спрямо SMA200", "value": 3.60364392245216, "unit": "%", "points": 1, "text": "Над 200-дневната средна – възходящ режим" } ], "required_mos": 25, "advice": "Смесени сигнали – стандартен размер на позициите и MoS ≥ 25%.", "risk_free": { "t_bill_3m": 4.029999732971191, "t_note_10y": 4.952000141143799 }, "stock": { "mos": -65.48137068094493, "required_mos": 25, "passes": false, "beta": 1.226, "beta_fits": true }, "note": "Режимът е правило върху 5 публични индикатора (FRED, Yahoo) – ориентир, не прогноза за пазара. Нетната ликвидност е приближена: WALCL − TGA − RRP." }, "benchmark": { "indices": { "SPY": { "name": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "corr": 0.5058516275933524, "r2": 0.25588586913884376, "idio_share": 74.41141308611563, "vol_stock": 31.168546806130244, "vol_index": 14.721733750781112, "exp_stock": -1.9400839534016057, "exp_index": 7.849867740573191, "p_beat_index": 31.019999999999996, "p_beat_rf": 38.105, "exp_excess": -9.789951693974793, "p_excess_10": 20.36, "p_lag_10": 55.245, "sharpe_stock": -0.13628101806370446, "sharpe_index": 0.33963391028823 }, "VWCE.DE": { "name": "FTSE All-World (VWCE)", "corr": 0.427433096422127, "r2": 0.18269905191700733, "idio_share": 81.73009480829927, "vol_stock": 31.168546806130244, "vol_index": 13.145620702950572, "exp_stock": -1.9359659040499189, "exp_index": 7.333395601665171, "p_beat_index": 32.015, "p_beat_rf": 38.005, "exp_excess": -9.269361505715102, "p_excess_10": 21.715, "p_lag_10": 54.625, "sharpe_stock": -0.13628101806370446, "sharpe_index": 0.3423193245633477 } }, "hurdle": { "rf_pct": 2.6, "spread_vs_rf_lo": 17.4, "spread_vs_rf_hi": 37.4, "market_expected": 7.6, "plan_expected_net": -2.2698689841036495, "plan_p_ge20": 8.58, "alpha_needed": 12.4, "plan_edge": -9.869868984103649 }, "verdict": [ "74% от риска на акцията е специфичен за компанията (не се обяснява от пазара) – това е рискът, за който трябва да бъдете възнаградени.", "Шанс акцията да победи S&P 500 за 12 месеца: 31% (очаквано превъзходство -9.8 п.п.); шанс да изостане с повече от 10 п.п.: 55%.", "Планът за 1–2 сделки има очаквана нетна печалба -2.3% срещу пазарна алтернатива ≈ 7.6% и безрискова доходност 2.6% – липсва преимущество от -9.9 п.п." ], "worth": false, "note": "Симулацията е двумерен GBM с историческа корелация и вол. за последните 2 г.; очакваната доходност на акцията е от модела за прогноза, на индекса – CAPM (rf + премия за риск)." }, "tranchetest": { "available": true, "summary": { "n": 454, "years": 19.0, "mean": 7.026313823515486, "median": 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се проверяват по цени на затваряне (вътрешнодневни гапове не са моделирани). Справедливата цена в миналото не е известна, затова целта е ограничена до +25..+45%. Резултатите са нетни след такси и данък." }, "guidance": { "available": false, "reason": "Само за US емитенти със SEC 8-K." } } }, "company": "Alphabet Inc.", "sector": "Communication Services", "industry": "Internet Content & Information", "price": 248.9499969482422, "factors": { "1": 15.10619, "2": null, "3": 0.9872, "4": 5.2133503, "5": 8.974727425435667, "6": 7.275160970461559, "7": 5.834130690025308, "8": 10.541818162275499, "9": 11.556971249522721, "10": 170.14036475730487, "11": 173.56123881412364, "12": 19.08824669794376, "13": 4.019802875509972, "14": 0.5761655118577227, "15": 7.275172110864376, "16": 60.857401220128295, "17": 33.321304696687314, "18": 50.03077915847658, "19": 67.65216579140645, "20": 4.191696844393311, "21": 52.3748226551064, "22": 56.757492203773495, "23": 39.59373808335896, "24": 59.02370588139752, "25": 0.791387596782024, "26": null, "27": 48.72317437136222, "28": 21.325998378499143, "29": 2054584.2981920934, "30": 0.7617970758695596, "31": 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по курс 0.8930. Листинг в различна валута/ADR може да е неточен – за най-добри резултати ползвайте основния листинг (напр. GOOGL, не ABEA.DE)." ], "as_of": "2026-11-03T17:58:36.112604Z" }