{ "symbol": "AAPL", "fx": { "cur": "USD", "eurusd": 1.1201971769332886, "to_usd": 1.0, "to_eur": 0.8926999822813813 }, "analysis": { "levels": { "support": [ 325.80999755859375, 309.8999938964844, 300.57000732421875 ], "resistance": [ 344.57000732421875, 345.3399963378906, 351.7300109863281 ], "sma50": 334.05830078125, "sma200": 297.34017501831056, "low52": 243.4199981689453, "high52": 351.7300109863281, "bb_lower": 333.80496029812343, "bb_mid": 342.28575134277344, "zones": [ { "name": "Агресивно натрупване", "rule": "MoS > +30%", "price_max": 117.01534210345949, "color": "g" }, { "name": "Натрупване (BUY)", "rule": "MoS ≥ +20%", "price_max": 133.73181954681087, "color": "g" }, { "name": "Задържане / DCA", "rule": "−10% ≤ MoS ≤ +10%", "price_max": 183.88125187686495, "price_min": 150.44829699016222, "color": "y" }, { "name": "Частична печалба", "rule": "цена > FV +25%", "price_min": 208.95596804189196, "color": "r" }, { "name": "Изход / хеджиране", "rule": "цена > FV +40%", "price_min": 234.03068420691898, "color": "r" } ] }, "strategies": [ { "key": "value", "name": "Стойностна (Value / Margin of Safety)", "description": "Купува се със защитен марж под справедливата цена и се държи до сближаване. Дълъг хоризонт, малко сделки.", "horizon_months": 24, "entry": 133.73181954681087, "stop": 100.29886466010815, "target": 167.16477443351357, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Изчакайте цена ≤ 133.73 (MoS ≥ 20%). Сега MoS е -99%.", "trigger": 133.73181954681087, "stats": { "p_fill": 0.0195, "p_target": 0.05982905982905983, "p_stop": 0.09401709401709402, "p_open": 0.8461538461538461, "exp_return": -2.1187676341264416, "kelly": 0.0, "rr": 0.9999999999999996 }, "risk": "Нисък–Среден" }, { "key": "trend", "name": "Тренд / Momentum (Trend Following)", "description": "Купува се в потвърден възходящ тренд, с плаващ stop на 2.5×ATR и цел 2R. Средносрочно, повече сделки, по-ниска успеваемост, по-висок коефициент печалба/загуба.", "horizon_months": 6, "entry": 332.2449951171875, "stop": 313.6339370798884, "target": 369.46711119178565, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Няма потвърден възходящ тренд (изисква 50>200 SMA, цена>200 SMA, ADX>20).", "trigger": null, "stats": { "p_fill": 1.0, "p_target": 0.36333333333333334, "p_stop": 0.6256666666666667, "p_open": 0.011, "exp_return": 0.58684994661882, "kelly": 2.5530839231547002, "rr": 2.0 }, "risk": "Среден–Висок" }, { "key": "reversion", "name": "Контрариан / Mean Reversion (краткосрочен swing)", "description": "Купува се препродадена акция около подкрепа и се продава при връщане към средната. Кратък хоризонт, строг stop.", "horizon_months": 3, "entry": 332.2449951171875, "stop": 317.35614868734825, "target": 347.13384154702675, "applicable": true, "status_reason": "RSI/Болинджър показват препродаденост.", "trigger": 332.2449951171875, "stats": { "p_fill": 1.0, "p_target": 0.532, "p_stop": 0.467, "p_open": 0.001, "exp_return": 0.2909807462808568, "kelly": 3.253253253253252, "rr": 1.0 }, "risk": "Висок" }, { "key": "dca", "name": "Редовно натрупване (DCA) + доход", "description": "Равни месечни вноски за 12 месеца – изглажда входа и намалява риска от лош момент. Подходящо при несигурност.", "horizon_months": 12, "entry": 334.11471572160355, "stop": null, "target": null, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Препоръчва се само с половин размер: акцията е силно надценена (MoS < −25%).", "trigger": null, "risk": "Нисък–Среден", "stats": { "avg_cost": 334.11471572160355, "p_profit": 46.93333333333333, "exp_return": -0.376563948206322, "worst5": -24.037148315237584, "dividend_yield": 0.325061330004104, "tranches": 12 } } ], "scenarios": { "1": { "exp_price": 334.0325559132948, "exp_return": 0.5380248980053928, "p_profit": 51.887499999999996, "p_loss20": 0.0375, "p_gain30": 0.0625, "var95": -10.679507482065278, "cvar95": -13.282274687054423, "annualized": 6.650817669892328 }, "3": { "exp_price": 338.6728692162877, "exp_return": 1.9346789849559731, "p_profit": 53.2875, "p_loss20": 2.6625, "p_gain30": 2.1875, "var95": -17.15722609639031, "cvar95": -21.280164069845416, "annualized": 7.966205504279911 }, "6": { "exp_price": 340.5350240557708, "exp_return": 2.495155400507794, "p_profit": 52.31249999999999, "p_loss20": 9.55, "p_gain30": 7.2875, "var95": -24.880987084570812, "cvar95": -29.815039721558485, "annualized": 5.05256880574243 }, "12": { "exp_price": 336.80429673265513, "exp_return": 1.3722709694571917, "p_profit": 48.1375, "p_loss20": 20.7, "p_gain30": 13.0375, "var95": -35.091112624649675, "cvar95": -41.62074672646136, "annualized": 1.372270969457201 }, "24": { "exp_price": 320.8409953629848, "exp_return": -3.4324067846922275, "p_profit": 39.1125, "p_loss20": 36.012499999999996, "p_gain30": 15.7, "var95": -49.1265691339857, "cvar95": -55.82881037412953, "annualized": -1.7311884597621896 }, "36": { "exp_price": 304.3169062477752, "exp_return": -8.405871955892573, "p_profit": 34.050000000000004, "p_loss20": 45.6875, "p_gain30": 15.049999999999999, "var95": -59.23838986919206, "cvar95": -65.69456121704565, "annualized": -2.8843523240748903 } }, "risk": { "ann_return": 20.31877172882509, "vol": 28.597469644653838, "sharpe": 0.537277315914982, "sortino": 0.7751177530163085, "max_drawdown": -33.43370956600401, "calmar": 0.6077330931140701, "var95_1m": -9.26190091215405, "cvar95_1m": -12.468547162110626, "beta": 1.089 }, "confidence": { "label": "средна", "why": "умерено разминаване между моделите (72%)." }, "narrative": [ { "kind": "val", "text": "Според ансамбъла от 4 модела акцията е силно надценена (справедлива цена ≈ 167.16, MoS -99%). Увереност в оценката: средна – умерено разминаване между моделите (72%)." }, { "kind": "val", "text": "EV/EBITDA е 29.1, P/E 37.0, PEG 2.76." }, { "kind": "quality", "text": "ROIC е 75.8% срещу цена на капитала ≈ 10.3% – бизнесът създава стойност." }, { "kind": "quality", "text": "Оперативният марж е 33%, нетният 28%, FCF марж 29%." }, { "kind": "safety", "text": "Финансова устойчивост: Piotroski 8.0/9, Altman Z 12.8" }, { "kind": "safety", "text": "Нетният дълг е 0.4× EBITDA." }, { "kind": "growth", "text": "Приходите растат със 2% годишно (3 г.), печалбата на акция със 7%." }, { "kind": "tech", "text": "Технически: RSI 42, цената е -0.5% спрямо SMA50 и +11.7% спрямо SMA200, ADX 19." }, { "kind": "risk", "text": "Риск: годишна волатилност 29%, максимален спад за 2 г. -33%, VaR 95% за месец -9% (CVaR -12%)." }, { "kind": "warn", "text": "Пазарът залага ~28% годишен ръст на FCF срещу исторически ~-4% – риск от разочарование." }, { "kind": "warn", "text": "Активни сигнали за продажба: accounting_flag, mos_lt_-25." } ], "verdict": { "score": 32.5, "action": "ИЗБЯГВАЙТЕ / НАМАЛЕТЕ – надценена или с червен флаг", "tone": "r" }, "history": { "dates": [ "2024-11-04", "2024-11-05", "2024-11-06", "2024-11-07", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-11", "2024-11-12", "2024-11-13", "2024-11-14", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-18", "2024-11-19", "2024-11-20", "2024-11-21", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-25", "2024-11-26", "2024-11-27", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-02", "2024-12-03", "2024-12-04", "2024-12-05", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-09", "2024-12-10", "2024-12-11", "2024-12-12", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-16", "2024-12-17", "2024-12-18", "2024-12-19", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-23", "2024-12-24", "2024-12-26", "2024-12-27", "2024-12-30", "2024-12-31", "2025-01-02", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-06", "2025-01-07", "2025-01-08", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-13", "2025-01-14", "2025-01-15", "2025-01-16", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-21", "2025-01-22", "2025-01-23", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-27", "2025-01-28", "2025-01-29", "2025-01-30", 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"ok": false, "detail": "очаквана нетна -1.5% срещу пазарна ≈ 10.0% годишно → преимущество -11.4 п.п." } ], "passed": 2, "disqualifiers": [], "catalysts": [ { "key": "margin", "text": "Цикличен обрат / разширяване на оперативния марж", "directional": true } ], "tranches": [ { "n": 1, "alloc": 0.3, "price": 332.2449951171875, "trigger": "MoS ≥ 20%, катализатор, RSI(14) < 40", "goal": "Първоначална експозиция" }, { "n": 2, "alloc": 0.4, "price": 318.21336101001515, "trigger": "Тест на резервно ниво −4.2% (няма подкрепа в диапазона)", "goal": "Сваля WAP към локалното дъно" }, { "n": 3, "alloc": 0.3, "price": 309.8999938964844, "trigger": "Капитулация – институционално ниво; VIX скок / фалшив негатив без промяна в тезата", "goal": "Максимален ефект върху средната цена" } ], "wap": { "all": 319.69098800653165, "t1_t2": 324.07911799964114, "t1": 332.2449951171875 }, "exits": { "tp1": 383.629185607838, "tp1_pct": 20.0, "tp2": 447.5673832091443, "tp2_pct": 39.99999999999999, "stop": 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3.463813806779867, "p_profit": 58.220000000000006, "p_ge20": 1.9, "p_ge10": 17.98, "p_loss": 41.78, "p_stop": 22.74, "p_t2": 75.32, "p_t3": 48.699999999999996, "p_tp1": 48.36, "p_tp2": 27.54, "worst5": -21.98917118070422, "cvar5": -22.595724171172247, "best95": 17.440453595902742, "invested_avg": 74.738 }, "best": false } ], "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2.0, "rec_pct": 21.31045417244903, "full_loss_pct": 9.385065113185979 }, "assumptions": { "commission": 0.1, "spread": 0.05, "fx": 0.25, "stop_slip": 0.3, "tax": 10.0, "market_expected": 9.953999996185303, "side_cost": 0.4 }, "hypothetical_target": true, "edge": -11.424009349892339, "entry_needed": null, "steps": [ "Не влизайте.", "Причина: справедливата цена е под пазарната (MoS < 0).", "Ако акцията ви интересува, проследете я за промяна във фундамента." ], "note": "Стопът се избира от три варианта по най-добро съотношение очаквана нетна печалба / опашков риск (CVaR 5%). Нивата на Транш 2 и 3 са пропорционални на стопа, за да остават над него. Всички резултати са след такси, плъзгане и данък. Катализаторите са автоматични прокси – потвърдете ги с новини и отчети." }, "fan": [ { "m": 0, "p10": 332.2449951171875, "p25": 332.2449951171875, "p50": 332.2449951171875, "p75": 332.2449951171875, "p90": 332.2449951171875 }, { "m": 1, "p10": 303.98124438236636, "p25": 317.610792693793, "p50": 333.47130394849523, "p75": 350.12384060991303, "p90": 365.82227559155456 }, { "m": 2, "p10": 293.6233476331312, "p25": 312.4130601039202, "p50": 334.7021390582176, "p75": 358.5814301517439, "p90": 381.52797723060206 }, { "m": 3, "p10": 286.16059927991444, "p25": 308.7469974070533, "p50": 335.9375171527467, "p75": 365.52263302488007, "p90": 394.37300493056796 }, { "m": 4, "p10": 279.32529881968276, "p25": 304.9349463183693, "p50": 336.15039852911025, "p75": 370.56130101042703, "p90": 404.53582582301084 }, { "m": 5, "p10": 273.0425025090306, "p25": 301.17846417391456, "p50": 335.85073566329845, "p75": 374.51454889033903, "p90": 413.10680794777784 }, { "m": 6, "p10": 267.05359746276946, "p25": 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372.2996358455675, "p90": 478.9803551459936 }, { "m": 34, "p10": 162.7529251675598, "p25": 210.1839142199573, "p50": 279.25513646545363, "p75": 371.02473579747664, "p90": 479.15225586300517 }, { "m": 35, "p10": 160.22159805221423, "p25": 207.68890049819174, "p50": 277.0872621818571, "p75": 369.6747908976759, "p90": 479.19476398192245 }, { "m": 36, "p10": 157.72309494702682, "p25": 205.20411700738782, "p50": 274.8940664764764, "p75": 368.2516164198248, "p90": 479.11022675121495 } ], "profile": { "summary": "Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod, as well as Apple branded and third-party accessories. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allows customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms. In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV, which offers original content and live sports; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property. The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store. The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers and resellers. The company was formerly known as Apple Computer, Inc. and changed its name to Apple Inc. in January 2007. Apple Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.", "website": "https://www.apple.com", "employees": 150000, "country": "United States", "city": "Cupertino", "exchange": "NasdaqGS", "industry": "Consumer Electronics", "market_cap": 4848843489280.0, "target_low": 250.0, "target_mean": 333.43842, "target_high": 405.0, "recommendation": "buy", "analysts": 38, "beta": 1.089, "next_earnings": 1793653200, "financials": { "years": [ "2025", "2024", "2023", "2022" ], "revenue": [ 416161000000.0, 391035000000.0, 383285000000.0, 394328000000.0 ], "operating_income": [ 133050000000.0, 123216000000.0, 114301000000.0, 119437000000.0 ], "net_income": [ 112010000000.0, 93736000000.0, 96995000000.0, 99803000000.0 ], "fcf": [ 98767000000.0, 108807000000.0, 99584000000.0, 111443000000.0 ], "eps": [ 7.46, 6.08, 6.13, 6.11 ], "total_debt": [ 98657000000.0, 106629000000.0, 111088000000.0, 132480000000.0 ], "equity": [ 73733000000.0, 56950000000.0, 62146000000.0, 50672000000.0 ] } }, "eu_listing": null, "interpretation": { "factors": { "1": { "name": "Trailing P/E", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа – цената изисква висок и устойчив растеж" }, "2": { "name": "Forward P/E", "rating": "r", "text": "Много скъпа дори спрямо очакваните печалби" }, "3": { "name": "PEG Ratio", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпо спрямо очаквания растеж" }, "4": { "name": "Price to Book", "rating": "r", "text": "Много висока премия над собствения капитал" }, "5": { "name": "Price to Tangible Book", "rating": "r", "text": "Цената е далеч над материалните активи – стойността е в нематериални неща (марка, софтуер)" }, "6": { "name": "Price to Sales", "rating": "r", "text": "Много висока – всичко зависи от бъдещите маржове" }, "7": { "name": "Forward P/S", "rating": "r", "text": "Много висока оценка спрямо очакваните приходи" }, "8": { "name": "EV/EBITDA", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа – очакванията са високи" }, "9": { "name": "EV/EBIT", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа по оперативна печалба" }, "10": { "name": "EV/FCF", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа спрямо свободния кеш" }, "11": { "name": "P/FCF", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа спрямо свободния кеш" }, "12": { "name": "P/OCF", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа спрямо оперативния кеш" }, "13": { "name": "Earnings Yield − 10Y", "rating": "r", "text": "Печалбата дава по-малко от безрисковата облигация – оценката разчита на растеж" }, "14": { "name": "FCF Yield", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерен кеш доход" }, "15": { "name": "EV/Invested Capital", "rating": "r", "text": "Много голяма премия над вложения капитал" }, "16": { "name": "Gross Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Висок брутен марж – добра ценова сила" }, "17": { "name": "Operating Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен оперативен марж" }, "18": { "name": "Net Profit Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен нетен марж" }, "19": { "name": "EBITDA Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Много висока кеш-генерираща способност" }, "20": { "name": "FCF Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Отлична кеш конверсия" }, "21": { "name": "ROIC", "rating": "g", "text": "Изключителна възвръщаемост – типичен знак за ров" }, "22": { "name": "ROE", "rating": "g", "text": "Много висок ROE – проверете дали не е раздут от дълг или обратни изкупувания" }, "23": { "name": "ROA", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен ROA" }, "24": { "name": "ROCE", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен ROCE" }, "25": { "name": "Asset Turnover", "rating": "g", "text": "Висок оборот на активите – лек, ефективен бизнес" }, "26": { "name": "Inventory Turnover", "rating": "g", "text": "Бърз оборот на запасите" }, "27": { "name": "DSO", "rating": "y", "text": "Нормален срок за събиране" }, "28": { "name": "Cash Conversion Cycle", "rating": "g", "text": "Отрицателен цикъл – клиентите финансират бизнеса" }, "29": { "name": "Revenue per Employee", "rating": "g", "text": "Много висока продуктивност на служител" }, "30": { "name": "CFO / Net Income", "rating": "g", "text": "Кешът надвишава печалбата – висококачествена печалба" }, "31": { "name": "Current Ratio", "rating": "r", "text": "Краткосрочните задължения надвишават краткосрочните активи" }, "32": { "name": "Quick Ratio", "rating": "y", "text": "Приемлива бърза ликвидност" }, "33": { "name": "Cash Ratio", "rating": "g", "text": "Добро покритие с пари" }, "34": { "name": "Debt/Equity", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерена задлъжнялост" }, "35": { "name": "Debt/Capital", "rating": "y", "text": "Значителен дял на дълга" }, "36": { "name": "Net Debt/EBITDA", "rating": "g", "text": "Комфортен дълг" }, "38": { "name": "Cash Flow to Debt", "rating": "g", "text": "Дългът може да се изплати за по-малко от ~3 години" }, "39": { "name": "Piotroski F-Score", "rating": "g", "text": "Силна фундаментална динамика (7–9)" }, "40": { "name": "Altman Z-Score", "rating": "g", "text": "Безопасна зона – нисък риск от фалит" }, "41": { "name": "Beneish M-Score", "rating": "g", "text": "Няма признаци за манипулация на отчетите" }, "42": { "name": "Net Working Capital", "rating": "y", "text": "Отрицателен оборотен капитал (нормално за някои модели, рисково за други)" }, "43": { "name": "Debt Maturity (short-term share)", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерен дял краткосрочен дълг" }, "46": { "name": "3Y Revenue CAGR", "rating": "y", "text": "Бавен ръст на приходите" }, "48": { "name": "3Y EPS CAGR", "rating": "y", "text": "Бавен ръст на печалбата на акция" }, "50": { "name": "3Y FCF CAGR", "rating": "r", "text": "Свободният кеш намалява" }, "52": { "name": "Operating Income Growth", "rating": "g", "text": "Растяща оперативна печалба" }, "53": { "name": "CapEx Trend", "rating": "g", "text": "Нормален ръст на инвестициите" }, "54": { "name": "Margin Expansion (bps/yr)", "rating": "y", "text": "Стабилен марж" }, "56": { "name": "Dividend Yield", "rating": "y", "text": "Символична дивидентна доходност" }, "57": { "name": "Dividend Payout", "rating": "g", "text": "Устойчив дял на печалбата за дивидент" }, "58": { "name": "FCF Payout", "rating": "g", "text": "Дивидентът е сигурно покрит от кеша" }, "61": { "name": "Buyback Yield", "rating": "y", "text": "Малки обратни изкупувания" }, "62": { "name": "Total Shareholder Yield", "rating": "g", "text": "Добра обща доходност за акционерите" }, "63": { "name": "Net Share Dilution", "rating": "g", "text": "Броят акции намалява – акционерите притежават по-голям дял" }, "64": { "name": "SBC % of Revenue", "rating": "g", "text": "Малък скрит разход за акции" }, "65": { "name": "Reinvestment Rate", "rating": "g", "text": "Умерено реинвестиране" }, "66": { "name": "RSI (14)", "rating": "y", "text": "Слабо-неутрален импулс" }, "67": { "name": "MACD hist (% of price)", "rating": "r", "text": "Импулсът е отрицателен" }, "68": { "name": "Price vs SMA50", "rating": "y", "text": "Леко под 50-дневната средна" }, "69": { "name": "Price vs SMA200", "rating": "g", "text": "Над 200-дневната средна – дългосрочен възходящ тренд" }, "70": { "name": "Golden/Death Cross", "rating": "g", "text": "Golden Cross – 50-дневната е над 200-дневната" }, "71": { "name": "ATR % of price", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерена дневна волатилност" }, "72": { "name": "Bollinger %B", "rating": "g", "text": "На/под долната лента – крайно ниско за 20 дни" }, "73": { "name": "VWAP deviation", "rating": "y", "text": "Близо до средната претеглена цена" }, "74": { "name": "Relative Volume", "rating": "y", "text": "Нормален обем" }, "75": { "name": "OBV trend", "rating": "y", "text": "Неутрален обем" }, "76": { "name": "ADX (14)", "rating": "y", "text": "Няма ясен тренд (страничен пазар)" }, "77": { "name": "Stochastic %K", "rating": "y", "text": "Неутрална" }, "78": { "name": "52-Week Range Percentile", "rating": "y", "text": "В средата на годишния диапазон" }, "79": { "name": "Historical Volatility 30D", "rating": "g", "text": "Спокойна акция" }, "80": { "name": "Downside Deviation", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерени отрицателни колебания" }, "81": { "name": "Bid-Ask Spread %", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпо за търгуване – широк спред" }, "82": { "name": "Short Interest % Float", "rating": "g", "text": "Малко къси позиции" }, "83": { "name": "Days to Cover", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерен срок за покриване" }, "84": { "name": "Institutional Ownership %", "rating": "g", "text": "Добро институционално присъствие" }, "86": { "name": "Insider Ownership %", "rating": "g", "text": "Вътрешните лица имат значителен дял – съвпадащи интереси" }, "87": { "name": "Insider Net Buy/Sell L3M", "rating": "r", "text": "Нетни продажби от вътрешни лица (често планови)" }, "92": { "name": "EPS Growth Forecast", "rating": "g", "text": "Силен очакван ръст на печалбата" }, "93": { "name": "Revenue Growth Forecast", "rating": "g", "text": "Силен очакван ръст на приходите" }, "95": { "name": "Price Target Upside %", "rating": "y", "text": "Малък потенциал според анализаторите" }, "96": { "name": "WACC", "rating": "y", "text": "Нормална цена на капитала" }, "97": { "name": "EVA spread (ROIC−WACC)", "rating": "g", "text": "Създава голяма стойност над цената на капитала" }, "98": { "name": "Beta", "rating": "y", "text": "Движи се като пазара" } }, "modules": { "1": { "summary": "Предимно тревожна картина: 0 благоприятни, 1 неутрални, 14 тревожни от 15 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 0, "y": 1, "r": 14 }, "tone": "r", "name": "Оценка и мултиплекси", "meaning": "Показва колко скъпа е акцията спрямо печалби, приходи и кеш. Високи стойности значат, че очакванията вече са в цената." }, "2": { "summary": "Предимно благоприятна картина: 14 благоприятни, 1 неутрални, 0 тревожни от 15 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 14, "y": 1, "r": 0 }, "tone": "g", "name": "Рентабилност и ефективност", "meaning": "Показва колко ефективно бизнесът превръща приходите и капитала в печалба и кеш – основа на „рова“." }, "3": { "summary": "Смесена картина с превес на положителните сигнали: 6 благоприятни, 5 неутрални, 1 тревожни от 12 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 6, "y": 5, "r": 1 }, "tone": "y", "name": "Баланс и ликвидност", "meaning": "Показва дали компанията може да издържи труден период – ликвидност, дълг и риск от фалит/манипулации." }, "4": { "summary": "Смесена картина с превес на положителните сигнали: 2 благоприятни, 3 неутрални, 1 тревожни от 6 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 2, "y": 3, "r": 1 }, "tone": "y", "name": "Исторически растеж", "meaning": "Показва как са растели приходите, печалбата и кешът – дали бизнесът се развива или стагнира." }, "5": { "summary": "Предимно благоприятна картина: 6 благоприятни, 2 неутрални, 0 тревожни от 8 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 6, "y": 2, "r": 0 }, "tone": "g", "name": "Възвръщаемост за акционерите", "meaning": "Показва колко от създадената стойност стига до акционерите – дивиденти, обратни изкупувания, размиване." }, "6": { "summary": "Смесена картина с превес на положителните сигнали: 4 благоприятни, 10 неутрални, 1 тревожни от 15 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 4, "y": 10, "r": 1 }, "tone": "y", "name": "Технически индикатори", "meaning": "Показва какво прави цената сега – тренд, импулс и волатилност. Важи за тайминг, не за качеството на бизнеса." }, "7": { "summary": "Смесена картина с превес на положителните сигнали: 3 благоприятни, 1 неутрални, 2 тревожни от 6 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 3, "y": 1, "r": 2 }, "tone": "y", "name": "Пазарна структура", "meaning": "Показва кой държи и търгува акцията – ликвидност, къси позиции, институции и вътрешни лица." }, "8": { "summary": "Смесена картина с превес на положителните сигнали: 3 благоприятни, 3 неутрални, 0 тревожни от 6 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 3, "y": 3, "r": 0 }, "tone": "y", "name": "Прогнози и макро", "meaning": "Показва какво очаква пазарът за бъдещето – прогнози на анализатори, цена на капитала и чувствителност." } }, "insights": [ { "kind": "warn", "text": "Висококачествен бизнес (ROIC 76%), но оценен скъпо (EV/EBITDA 29.1) – очакванията вече са в цената; по-малко място за разочарование." }, { "kind": "good", "text": "Печалба с високо качество: кешът надвишава печалбата (1.14×) и FCF маржът е 29%." }, { "kind": "warn", "text": "Цената е в силен възходящ тренд (+12% над SMA200), но е с 99% над справедливата според модела – импулсът може да е по-силен от оценката; риск при корекция." }, { "kind": "warn", "text": "Печалбата дава по-малко от безрисковата доходност (5.0%) – инвестицията разчита на бъдещ растеж." } ], "strengths": [ { "id": 21, "name": "ROIC", "text": "Изключителна възвръщаемост – типичен знак за ров", "value": 75.81704043157956 }, { "id": 22, "name": "ROE", "text": "Много висок ROE – проверете дали не е раздут от дълг или обратни изкупувания", "value": 174.86064584378772 }, { "id": 23, "name": "ROA", "text": "Отличен ROA", "value": 35.88955603619854 }, { "id": 24, "name": "ROCE", "text": "Отличен ROCE", "value": 79.98502143484323 }, { "id": 36, "name": "Net Debt/EBITDA", "text": "Комфортен дълг", "value": 0.37344232818723616 }, { "id": 39, "name": "Piotroski F-Score", "text": "Силна фундаментална динамика (7–9)", "value": 8.0 } ], "risks": [ { "id": 4, "name": "Price to Book", "text": "Много висока премия над собствения капитал", "value": 45.141983 }, { "id": 8, "name": "EV/EBITDA", "text": "Скъпа – очакванията са високи", "value": 29.130939629790603 }, { "id": 9, "name": "EV/EBIT", "text": "Скъпа по оперативна печалба", "value": 31.59521557855856 }, { "id": 13, "name": "Earnings Yield − 10Y", "text": "Печалбата дава по-малко от безрисковата облигация – оценката разчита на растеж", "value": -2.251175301124742 }, { "id": 31, "name": "Current Ratio", "text": "Краткосрочните задължения надвишават краткосрочните активи", "value": 0.8932929222186667 }, { "id": 1, "name": "Trailing P/E", "text": "Скъпа – цената изисква висок и устойчив растеж", "value": 36.99833 } ], "counts": { "g": 38, "y": 26, "r": 19 } }, "modules": { "quarterly": { "available": true, "quarters": [ { "date": "2026-06-30", "revenue": 109417000000.0, "gross": 54770000000.0, "operating": 35695000000.0, "net": 29789000000.0, "ebitda": 39015000000.0, "eps": 2.02, "fcf": 31914000000.0, "cfo": 34369000000.0, "gross_m": 50.056206987945195, "op_m": 32.62290137729969, "net_m": 27.22520266503377, "fcf_m": 29.167314037124033, "rev_yoy": 16.356501765281383, "rev_qoq": -1.5892574471146892, "eps_yoy": 28.6624203821656 }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "revenue": 111184000000.0, "gross": 54781000000.0, "operating": 35885000000.0, "net": 29578000000.0, "ebitda": 39324000000.0, "eps": 2.01, "fcf": 26731000000.0, "cfo": 28702000000.0, "gross_m": 49.27057850050367, "op_m": 32.275327385235286, "net_m": 26.60274859692042, "fcf_m": 24.042128363793353, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": -22.65783689028632, "eps_yoy": null }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "revenue": 143756000000.0, "gross": 69231000000.0, "operating": 50852000000.0, "net": 42097000000.0, "ebitda": 54066000000.0, "eps": 2.84, "fcf": 51552000000.0, "cfo": 53925000000.0, "gross_m": 48.158685550516154, "op_m": 35.373827875010434, "net_m": 29.283647291243497, "fcf_m": 35.86076407245611, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": 40.29629340464154, "eps_yoy": null }, { "date": "2025-09-30", "revenue": 102466000000.0, "gross": 48341000000.0, "operating": 32427000000.0, "net": 27466000000.0, "ebitda": 35554000000.0, "eps": 1.85, "fcf": 26486000000.0, "cfo": 29728000000.0, "gross_m": 47.177600374758455, "op_m": 31.646594968086976, "net_m": 26.804988971951673, "fcf_m": 25.848574161185173, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": 8.964651835467263, "eps_yoy": null }, { "date": "2025-06-30", "revenue": 94036000000.0, "gross": 43718000000.0, "operating": 28202000000.0, "net": 23434000000.0, "ebitda": 31032000000.0, "eps": 1.57, "fcf": 24405000000.0, "cfo": 27867000000.0, "gross_m": 46.490705687183635, "op_m": 29.99064188183249, "net_m": 24.920243311072355, "fcf_m": 25.952826577055593, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": null, "eps_yoy": null } ], "earnings": [ { "date": "2026-11-02", "estimate": 1.99, "reported": 2.1, "surprise": 5.75, "move": -1.795640835751533 }, { "date": "2026-07-30", "estimate": 1.89, "reported": 2.02, "surprise": 6.74, "move": -7.353864245054432 }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "estimate": 1.94, "reported": 2.01, "surprise": 3.46, "move": 3.2393618379240596 }, { "date": "2026-01-29", "estimate": 2.67, "reported": 2.84, "surprise": 6.25, "move": 0.46461677741320706 }, { "date": "2025-10-30", "estimate": 1.77, "reported": 1.85, "surprise": 4.52, "move": -0.37951319176879883 }, { "date": "2025-07-31", "estimate": 1.43, "reported": 1.57, "surprise": 9.48, "move": -2.5003624118486445 }, { "date": "2025-05-01", "estimate": 1.62, "reported": 1.65, "surprise": 1.69, "move": -3.7361714546492397 }, { "date": "2025-01-30", "estimate": 2.35, "reported": 2.4, "surprise": 2.26, "move": -0.6692185539787565 }, { "date": "2024-10-31", "estimate": 0.95, "reported": 0.97, "surprise": 2.48, "move": null }, { "date": "2024-08-01", "estimate": 1.34, "reported": 1.4, "surprise": 4.36, "move": null }, { "date": "2024-05-02", "estimate": 1.51, "reported": 1.53, "surprise": 1.46, "move": null }, { "date": "2024-02-01", "estimate": 2.1, "reported": 2.18, "surprise": 3.66, "move": null } ], "beat": { "n": 24, "beat_rate": 95.83333333333334, "avg_surprise": 7.388333333333333, "streak": 15 }, "reaction": { "avg_abs_move": 2.517343663548584, "n": 8 }, "trends": { "revenue": -1, "op_margin": 1, "eps": 1, "fcf": 1 }, "score": 83.13658421597404, "label": "Силен и подобряващ се тримесечен импулс", "notes": [ "Приходите през последното тримесечие (2026-06-30) са +16.4% спрямо същото тримесечие миналата година и -1.6% спрямо предходното.", "Оперативният марж е 32.6% (+0.3 п.п. спрямо предходното тримесечие).", "Свободният кеш през тримесечието е 29% от приходите; FCF/нетна печалба = 1.07.", "Печалбата е надминавала консенсуса в 96% от последните 24 отчета (серия: 15); средна изненада +7.4%.", "След отчет цената се е движела средно ±2.5% в следващия ден (последни ~3 г.)." ], "n_quarters": 5, "coverage_note": "Безплатният източник дава 5–7 тримесечия отчети (YoY е възможно само за най-новите 1–3), но до 24 тримесечия история на EPS изненадите." }, "orderflow": { "gex": { "available": true, "expirations": [ "2026-11-04", "2026-11-06", "2026-11-09", "2026-11-11", "2026-11-13", "2026-11-20" ], "put_wall": 310.0, "call_wall": 350.0, "gamma_flip": 225.0, "total_gex": -579822953.1690447, "regime": "Отрицателна гама – по-големи движения (хеджирането подсилва тренда)", "put_call_oi": 1.1981124235396685, "put_call_vol": 0.8940834795365111, "atm_iv": 29.87639297485351, "strikes": [ { "strike": 300.0, "net": -25567199.839989327, "call_oi": 9364.0, "put_oi": 75246.0 }, { "strike": 310.0, "net": -50187500.116070464, "call_oi": 13684.0, "put_oi": 91914.0 }, { "strike": 320.0, "net": -114418898.54288651, "call_oi": 8422.0, "put_oi": 75781.0 }, { "strike": 325.0, "net": -104957881.00268815, "call_oi": 11532.0, "put_oi": 44971.0 }, { "strike": 327.5, "net": -27452977.131538633, "call_oi": 2018.0, "put_oi": 12106.0 }, { "strike": 330.0, "net": -185750610.30398902, "call_oi": 14347.0, "put_oi": 56947.0 }, { "strike": 332.5, "net": -24296829.51433553, "call_oi": 974.0, "put_oi": 6354.0 }, { "strike": 335.0, "net": -67151082.34140337, "call_oi": 12708.0, "put_oi": 29372.0 }, { "strike": 337.5, "net": -37890490.45257241, "call_oi": 3530.0, "put_oi": 13377.0 }, { "strike": 340.0, "net": -26929088.209349997, "call_oi": 23321.0, "put_oi": 32076.0 }, { "strike": 350.0, "net": 47267213.06249352, "call_oi": 66540.0, "put_oi": 18880.0 }, { "strike": 360.0, "net": 22080887.02987235, "call_oi": 56118.0, "put_oi": 7915.0 } ] }, "ats": { "available": true, "weeks": [ { "week": "2026-07-20", "ats_shares": 37839888, "total_volume": 221893000.0, "share": 17.053213936446845 }, { "week": "2026-07-27", "ats_shares": 60383610, "total_volume": 364861000.0, "share": 16.54975730483664 }, { "week": "2026-08-03", "ats_shares": 43621782, "total_volume": 273068900.0, "share": 15.974643029652954 }, { "week": "2026-08-10", "ats_shares": 27458995, "total_volume": 192525700.0, "share": 14.262508849467888 }, { "week": "2026-08-17", "ats_shares": 32116327, "total_volume": 229935400.0, "share": 13.967543492650544 }, { "week": "2026-08-24", "ats_shares": 23056992, "total_volume": 165636500.0, "share": 13.920236179827514 }, { "week": "2026-08-31", "ats_shares": 32289436, "total_volume": 205019200.0, "share": 15.749469317995581 }, { "week": "2026-09-07", "ats_shares": 34953477, "total_volume": 221845900.0, "share": 15.755746218433606 }, { "week": "2026-09-28", "ats_shares": 27684623, "total_volume": 190872300.0, "share": 14.504264369423955 }, { "week": "2026-10-12", "ats_shares": 34912671, "total_volume": 214659200.0, "share": 16.26423232733561 } ], "last_week": "2026-10-12", "last_share": 16.26423232733561, "avg_share": 15.400161502607114, "lag_days": 22, "top_firms": [ { "name": "UBSA UBS ATS", "shares": 5005780, "notional": 1720835890.915 }, { "name": "SGMT SIGMA X2", "shares": 3483226, "notional": 1196866341.9892 }, { "name": "INCR INTELLIGENT CROSS LLC", "shares": 3372212, "notional": 1158458928.201399 }, { "name": "PURE PURESTREAM", "shares": 2888960, "notional": 994516945.3778 }, { "name": "EBXL LEVEL ATS", "shares": 2378784, "notional": 817668429.8218 } ], "note": "FINRA публикува ATS обемите със седмично/месечно закъснение – това е структурен индикатор, не сигнал в реално време. Отделните блокови сделки >$5M (prints) не са свободно достъпни." }, "footprint": { "cmf20": -0.010014474650739801, "ad_slope": -0.010014474650739704, "accumulation_days": 1, "distribution_days": 0, "updown_vol": 0.945502424820902 }, "signal": { "score": 1, "max": 5, "label": "Няма следа от натрупване", "reasons": [ "1 дни на натрупване срещу 0 на разпределение" ], "tranche2": false } }, "smartmoney": { "insiders": { "available": true, "cik": 320193, "days": 180, "filings_checked": 30, "buys": [], "sells": [ { "filed": "2026-05-08", "date": "2026-05-06", "insider": "LEVINSON ARTHUR D", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 149527.0, "price": 284.57, "value": 42550898.39, "after": 3920049.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 3.6742648374179523, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000114036126020298/" }, { "filed": "2026-10-05", "date": "2026-10-02", "insider": "COOK TIMOTHY D", "role": "Executive Chair", "officer": true, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 88239.0, "price": 333.26, "value": 29406529.14, "after": 3305047.0, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 2.6003997305266933, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000114036126038674/" }, { "filed": "2026-05-08", "date": "2026-05-06", "insider": "LEVINSON ARTHUR D", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 100473.0, "price": 285.04, "value": 28638823.92, "after": 3819576.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 2.563054696510171, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000114036126020298/" }, { "filed": "2026-05-29", "date": "2026-05-27", "insider": "LEVINSON ARTHUR D", "role": "Директор", "officer": false, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 50000.0, "price": 311.02, "value": 15551000.0, "after": 3764576.0, "planned": false, "pct_sold": 1.3107616678760627, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000114036126023363/" }, { "filed": "2026-10-05", "date": "2026-10-02", "insider": "COOK TIMOTHY D", "role": "Executive Chair", "officer": true, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 40879.0, "price": 333.94, "value": 13651133.26, "after": 3264168.0, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 1.2368659205148973, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000114036126038674/" }, { "filed": "2026-10-05", "date": "2026-10-02", "insider": "O'BRIEN DEIRDRE", "role": "Senior Vice President", "officer": true, "director": false, "code": "S", "shares": 40764.0, "price": 333.35, "value": 13588679.4, "after": 142435.0, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 22.251213161643896, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000114036126038672/" }, { "filed": "2026-10-05", "date": "2026-10-02", "insider": "COOK TIMOTHY D", "role": "Executive Chair", "officer": true, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 39492.0, "price": 332.16, "value": 13117662.72, "after": 3393286.0, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 1.1504385078207795, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000114036126038674/" }, { "filed": "2026-10-05", "date": "2026-10-02", "insider": "COOK TIMOTHY D", "role": "Executive Chair", "officer": true, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 23143.0, "price": 331.44, "value": 7670515.92, "after": 3432778.0, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 0.6696622984148075, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000114036126038674/" }, { "filed": "2026-10-05", "date": "2026-10-02", "insider": "Ternus John", "role": "CEO", "officer": true, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 12746.0, "price": 333.34, "value": 4248751.64, "after": 63321.0, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 16.756280647324072, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000114036126038669/" }, { "filed": "2026-10-05", "date": "2026-10-02", "insider": "O'BRIEN DEIRDRE", "role": "Senior Vice President", "officer": true, "director": false, "code": "S", "shares": 5625.0, "price": 333.91, "value": 1878243.7500000002, "after": 136810.0, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 3.9491697967493944, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000114036126038672/" }, { "filed": "2026-10-05", "date": "2026-10-02", "insider": "Ternus John", "role": "CEO", "officer": true, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 5348.0, "price": 332.26, "value": 1776926.48, "after": 76067.0, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 6.568814100595713, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000114036126038669/" }, { "filed": "2026-10-05", "date": "2026-10-02", "insider": "Ternus John", "role": "CEO", "officer": true, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 3754.0, "price": 334.05, "value": 1254023.7, "after": 59567.0, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 5.928522922884983, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000114036126038669/" }, { "filed": "2026-10-05", "date": "2026-10-02", "insider": "Ternus John", "role": "CEO", "officer": true, "director": true, "code": "S", "shares": 3564.0, "price": 331.38, "value": 1181038.32, "after": 81415.0, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 4.193977335577024, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000114036126038669/" }, { "filed": "2026-10-15", "date": "2026-10-13", "insider": "Newstead Jennifer", "role": "SVP, GC and Government Affairs", "officer": true, "director": false, "code": "S", "shares": 2399.0, "price": 345.0, "value": 827655.0, "after": 37194.0, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 6.0591518702801, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000114036126039785/" }, { "filed": "2026-10-29", "date": "2026-10-27", "insider": "Newstead Jennifer", "role": "SVP, GC and Government Affairs", "officer": true, "director": false, "code": "S", "shares": 2399.0, "price": 343.36, "value": 823720.64, "after": 32396.0, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 6.894668774249174, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000114036126041201/" } ], "buy_count": 0, "sell_count": 37, "buy_value": 0, "sell_value": 183445216.31, "net_value": -183445216.31, "unique_buyers": 0, "cluster_buying": false, "officer_buying": false, "big_sells": [], "planned_sells": 34, "note": "Парснати са Form 4 от SEC EDGAR; броят се само сделки с код P (покупка) и S (продажба на отворения пазар). Продажбите често са планови (10b5-1) или за данъци – помнете, че покупките са по-силен сигнал от продажбите." }, "darkpool": { "available": false, "reason": "Няма Polygon ключ. Добавете polygon_key в config.json (платен план Stocks Developer) за блокови сделки >$1M. Безплатният FINRA ATS дял е в модула „Институционален поток“." }, "score": { "value": 0, "accumulating": false, "signals": [ "Нетни продажби за $183,445,216 без покупки (често планови)." ], "sources": { "sec": true, "polygon": false, "finra_ats": true } } }, "catalysts": { "trackers": [ { "key": "operating_leverage", "name": "Operating Leverage Turning Point", "horizon": "1–2 тримесечия", "mechanism": "Приходите растат по-бързо от разходите; скок на оперативния марж над 200 б.п.", "status": "active", "margin_now": 32.62290137729969, "margin_prev_year": 29.99064188183249, "delta_bps": 263.22594954671985, "revenue_growth": 16.356501765281383, "cost_growth": 11.981650818725885, "detail": "Оперативен марж 32.6% срещу 30.0% преди година (+263 б.п.); приходи +16.4% срещу разходи +12.0%." }, { "key": "capital_allocation", "name": "Capital Allocation Shift", "horizon": "3–6 месеца", "mechanism": "Прекратяване на разводняващи M&A и насочване на FCF към обратни изкупувания при P/E < 15.", "status": "watch", "pe": 36.99833, "buyback_to_fcf": 66.36597089616119, "mna_to_fcf": 0.0, "share_change": -2.2724804068801396, "buyback_yield": 1.8707759943282802, "detail": "Обратни изкупувания = 66% от FCF, M&A = 0% от FCF, P/E 37.0, брой акции -2.3% YoY." }, { "key": "spinoff", "name": "Corporate Spin-Off / Asset Carve-Out", "horizon": "6–12 месеца", "mechanism": "Отделяне на звено; пазарът премахва „конгломератната отстъпка“.", "status": "unknown", "detail": "Новините не са достъпни в момента.", "headlines": [] }, { "key": "squeeze", "name": "Short Squeeze / Fundamental De-risking", "horizon": "1–3 месеца", "mechanism": "Short float > 15%, Days to Cover > 5 + положителен отчет, който опровергава мечата теза.", "status": "none", "short_float": 0.8999999999999999, "days_to_cover": 3.48, "last_surprise": 5.75, "detail": "Short float 0.9%, Days to Cover 3.5, последна изненада в печалбата +5.8%." } ], "active": [ "Operating Leverage Turning Point" ], "events": [ { "type": "Месечен опционен падеж (OPEX)", "date": "2026-11-20", "extra": "Повишена волатилност около гама нивата", "days": 17 }, { "type": "Отчет (Earnings)", "date": "2027-01-28", "extra": "EPS консенсус 2.90232, приходи 155682441720", "days": 86 } ], "summary": "Активни катализатори: Operating Leverage Turning Point" }, "profitlock": { "rules": { "tp1_pct": 20.0, "sell_fraction": 35.0, "breakeven_plus": 1.0, "atr_mult": 2.5 }, "levels": { "wap": 319.69098800653165, "tp1": 383.629185607838, "breakeven_stop": 322.887897886597, "hh22": 351.7300109863281, "atr14": 7.444423214919633, "chandelier_now": 333.11895294902905, "initial_stop": 289.6877806211311, "tp2": 447.5673832091443 }, "baseline": { "expected": -1.3331419434308796, "median": -10.43767926948459, "p_loss": 57.550000000000004, "p_ge20": 6.3, "p_tp1": 41.025, "p_tp2": 19.425, "p_stop_before_tp1": 53.075, "p_be_exit": 4.275, "cvar5": -12.71713956015128, "worst5": -12.188047223806226, "best95": 23.83409897107149 }, "locked": { "expected": -1.4270448317573794, "median": -10.43767926948459, "p_loss": 55.074999999999996, "p_ge20": 4.0, "p_tp1": 41.025, "p_tp2": 6.550000000000001, "p_stop_before_tp1": 53.075, "p_be_exit": 33.525, "cvar5": -12.71713956015128, "worst5": -12.188047223806226, "best95": 19.02733668426086 }, "hypothetical_target": false, "better": false, "note": "Chandelier Exit = най-висок максимум за 22 дни − 2.5×ATR(14). След TP1 (продава се 35%) стопът на останалите 65% се вдига на WAP+1% (Free Ride) и следва Chandelier. В симулацията ATR е приближен с текущия ATR% от цената." }, "scanner": { "passed": false, "reasons": [ "MoS -99% < 20%" ], "result": null }, "macro": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "points": 0, "max_points": 5, "items": [ { "key": "curve", "name": "Крива на доходността 10Y−2Y", "value": 0.32, "unit": "п.п.", "points": 0, "text": "Плоска крива – неутрално" }, { "key": "liquidity", "name": "Нетна ликвидност на Fed (баланс − TGA − RRP)", "value": 5745.732, "unit": "млрд $", "change13w": -79.10599999999977, "points": -1, "text": "Ликвидността пада (-79 млрд за 13 седмици)", "series": { "dates": [ "2025-11-05", "2025-11-12", "2025-11-19", "2025-11-26", "2025-12-03", "2025-12-10", "2025-12-17", "2025-12-24", "2025-12-31", "2026-01-07", "2026-01-14", "2026-01-21", "2026-01-28", "2026-02-04", "2026-02-11", "2026-02-18", "2026-02-25", "2026-03-04", "2026-03-11", "2026-03-18", "2026-03-25", "2026-04-01", "2026-04-08", "2026-04-15", "2026-04-22", "2026-04-29", "2026-05-06", "2026-05-13", "2026-05-20", "2026-05-27", "2026-06-03", "2026-06-10", "2026-06-17", "2026-06-24", "2026-07-01", "2026-07-08", "2026-07-15", "2026-07-22", "2026-07-29", "2026-08-05", "2026-08-12", "2026-08-19", "2026-08-26", "2026-09-02", "2026-09-09", "2026-09-16", "2026-09-23", "2026-09-30", "2026-10-07", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-21", "2026-10-28" ], "values": [ 5618.9, 5620.8, 5612.2, 5646.8, 5596.1, 5675.3, 5713.4, 5739.3, 5697.3, 5772.9, 5799.3, 5712.0, 5663.4, 5694.7, 5706.0, 5699.8, 5725.0, 5796.0, 5807.6, 5802.2, 5782.3, 5825.5, 5945.3, 5954.1, 5700.9, 5717.3, 5830.1, 5886.2, 5907.5, 5872.2, 5833.7, 5896.9, 5848.9, 5812.4, 5843.3, 5958.2, 5986.7, 5917.4, 5824.8, 5839.6, 5795.3, 5791.8, 5779.5, 5768.7, 5856.9, 5864.1, 5770.2, 5782.8, 5865.0, 5872.1, 5801.4, 5745.7 ] } }, { "key": "vix", "name": "VIX (индекс на страха)", "value": 20.700000762939453, "unit": "", "points": 0, "text": "Повишена тревожност" }, { "key": "term", "name": "VIX term structure (VIX/VIX3M)", "value": 0.9736594797782918, "unit": "", "points": 0, "text": "Плоска структура" }, { "key": "trend", "name": "S&P 500 спрямо SMA200", "value": 3.7642355354195134, "unit": "%", "points": 1, "text": "Над 200-дневната средна – възходящ режим" } ], "required_mos": 25, "advice": "Смесени сигнали – стандартен размер на позициите и MoS ≥ 25%.", "risk_free": { "t_bill_3m": 4.029999732971191, "t_note_10y": 4.953999996185303 }, "stock": { "mos": -98.75299460852098, "required_mos": 25, "passes": false, "beta": 1.089, "beta_fits": true }, "note": "Режимът е правило върху 5 публични индикатора (FRED, Yahoo) – ориентир, не прогноза за пазара. Нетната ликвидност е приближена: WALCL − TGA − RRP." }, "benchmark": { "indices": { "SPY": { "name": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "corr": 0.556789918903407, "r2": 0.31001501379246255, "idio_share": 68.99849862075375, "vol_stock": 28.760086696510882, "vol_index": 14.720763216175015, "exp_stock": 0.844904054386264, "exp_index": 10.404985276819435, "p_beat_index": 30.514999999999997, "p_beat_rf": 38.785, "exp_excess": -9.560081222433165, "p_excess_10": 19.215, "p_lag_10": 54.190000000000005, "sharpe_stock": -0.1327795826948184, "sharpe_index": 0.33965630222936094 }, "VWCE.DE": { "name": "FTSE All-World (VWCE)", "corr": 0.4570007777201365, "r2": 0.2088497108368096, "idio_share": 79.11502891631905, "vol_stock": 28.760086696510882, "vol_index": 13.145620702950572, "exp_stock": 0.8491435000712144, "exp_index": 9.882208175220185, "p_beat_index": 31.94, "p_beat_rf": 38.800000000000004, "exp_excess": -9.033064675148964, "p_excess_10": 20.89, "p_lag_10": 53.52, "sharpe_stock": -0.1327795826948184, "sharpe_index": 0.3423193245633477 } }, "hurdle": { "rf_pct": 4.953999996185303, "spread_vs_rf_lo": 15.046000003814697, "spread_vs_rf_hi": 35.0460000038147, "market_expected": 9.953999996185303, "plan_expected_net": -1.4700093537070356, "plan_p_ge20": 6.02, "alpha_needed": 10.046000003814697, "plan_edge": -11.424009349892339 }, "verdict": [ "69% от риска на акцията е специфичен за компанията (не се обяснява от пазара) – това е рискът, за който трябва да бъдете възнаградени.", "Шанс акцията да победи S&P 500 за 12 месеца: 31% (очаквано превъзходство -9.6 п.п.); шанс да изостане с повече от 10 п.п.: 54%.", "Планът за 1–2 сделки има очаквана нетна печалба -1.5% срещу пазарна алтернатива ≈ 10.0% и безрискова доходност 5.0% – липсва преимущество от -11.4 п.п." ], "worth": false, "note": "Симулацията е двумерен GBM с историческа корелация и вол. за последните 2 г.; очакваната доходност на акцията е от модела за прогноза, на индекса – CAPM (rf + премия за риск)." }, "tranchetest": { "available": true, "summary": { "n": 1132, "years": 45.8968253968254, "mean": 2.653341062220718, "median": 4.009274145191812, "win": 54.59363957597173, "p_stop": 50.265017667844525, "p_tp2": 42.04946996466431, "p_ge20": 14.664310954063604, "worst": -50.527973707652116, "best": 40.46956983809884, "p_t2": 68.55123674911661, "p_t3": 58.12720848056537 }, "crises": [ { "label": "COVID срив (фев–мар 2020)", "n": 4, "mean": -2.511809978166627, "worst": -12.8952493911203, "p_stop": 75.0 }, { "label": "Инфлационен спад (2022)", "n": 12, "mean": -3.846735379119707, "worst": -13.422110212450422, "p_stop": 83.33333333333334 }, { "label": "Финансова криза (2008)", "n": 21, "mean": -7.5642218251076985, "worst": -16.528218216304225, "p_stop": 80.95238095238095 }, { "label": "Dot-com (2000–2001)", "n": 27, "mean": -6.417724192155775, "worst": -50.527973707652116, "p_stop": 88.88888888888889 } ], "scenarios": [ { "name": "Базов сценарий", "mu": 1.1352476863557897, "vol": 25.026840301829274, "expected": -1.488378824837108, "p_stop": 58.160000000000004, "p_tp2": 18.87, "p_tp1": 41.15, "p_loss": 58.650000000000006, "cvar5": -12.761873821591557, "worst5": -12.182461888233059, "stop_before_tp": 58.56409223643138 }, { "name": "Висока волатилност (×1.5)", "mu": 1.1352476863557897, "vol": 37.540260452743915, "expected": -1.9727790448543936, "p_stop": 69.15, "p_tp2": 27.13, "p_tp1": 42.07, "p_loss": 63.93, "cvar5": -14.002345331647554, "worst5": -13.15106510119356, "stop_before_tp": 62.17406941197628 }, { "name": "Мечи тренд (−15% годишно)", "mu": -15.0, "vol": 25.026840301829274, "expected": -5.96240015814262, "p_stop": 77.35, "p_tp2": 7.539999999999999, "p_tp1": 24.22, "p_loss": 76.94, "cvar5": -12.923673487471286, "worst5": -12.410567910825792, "stop_before_tp": 76.15437629221226 }, { "name": "Кризисен (вол. ×2, −25% годишно)", "mu": -25.0, "vol": 50.05368060365855, "expected": -4.624719851861293, "p_stop": 80.33, "p_tp2": 19.42, "p_tp1": 33.46, "p_loss": 73.83, "cvar5": -15.204805946023301, "worst5": -14.176349329646532, "stop_before_tp": 70.59495562000177 } ], "timeline": [ { "d": "1980-12-12", "r": -7.66 }, { "d": "1981-02-25", "r": -11.97 }, { "d": "1981-05-07", "r": -10.64 }, { "d": "1981-07-20", "r": -14.26 }, { "d": "1981-09-29", "r": 9.64 }, { "d": "1981-12-09", "r": -2.52 }, { "d": "1982-02-22", "r": -3.34 }, { "d": "1982-05-04", "r": -11.9 }, { "d": "1982-07-15", "r": 8.06 }, { "d": "1982-09-24", "r": 8.37 }, { "d": "1982-12-06", "r": -8.03 }, { "d": "1983-02-15", "r": -10.81 }, { "d": "1983-04-28", "r": -9.43 }, { "d": "1983-07-11", "r": -10.74 }, { "d": "1983-09-20", "r": -7.6 }, { "d": "1983-11-30", "r": 8.08 }, { "d": "1984-02-10", "r": 23.66 }, { "d": "1984-04-24", "r": -11.04 }, { "d": "1984-07-05", "r": -5.71 }, { "d": "1984-09-14", "r": -11.96 }, { "d": "1984-11-26", "r": -5.44 }, { "d": "1985-02-06", "r": -13.92 }, { "d": "1985-04-19", "r": -12.06 }, { "d": "1985-07-01", "r": -10.68 }, { "d": "1985-09-11", "r": 8.64 }, { "d": 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Справедливата цена в миналото не е известна, затова целта е ограничена до +25..+45%. Резултатите са нетни след такси и данък." }, "guidance": { "available": true, "docs": [ { "date": "2026-11-02", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019326000024/a8-kex991q4202609262026.htm", "tone": { "words": 2860, "positive": 4.195804195804196, "negative": 3.146853146853147, "uncertainty": 6.293706293706294, "net": 13.636363636363635 }, "guidance": [], "n_guidance": 0, "guided_revenue": null, "guided_band": null, "reported_revenue": 114500000000.0 }, { "date": "2026-07-30", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019326000018/a8-kex991q3202606272026.htm", "tone": { "words": 2733, "positive": 2.9271862422246615, "negative": 3.293084522502744, "uncertainty": 6.586169045005488, "net": -5.555555555555555 }, "guidance": [], "n_guidance": 0, "guided_revenue": null, "guided_band": null, "reported_revenue": 109400000000.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019326000011/a8-kex991q2202603282026.htm", "tone": { "words": 2790, "positive": 4.301075268817204, "negative": 3.5842293906810037, "uncertainty": 6.810035842293908, "net": 8.695652173913043 }, "guidance": [], "n_guidance": 0, "guided_revenue": null, "guided_band": null, "reported_revenue": 111200000000.0 } ], "diff": { "added": [], "removed": [], "tone_delta": 19.19191919191919, "uncertainty_delta": -0.29246275129919397, "label": "По-позитивен тон" }, "guidance_accuracy": [], "note": "Анализът е върху прессъобщението за резултатите (SEC 8-K Ex-99), не върху конферентния разговор. Тонът е по речник (положителни/отрицателни/условни думи), без FinBERT – служи за ориентир. Диференциалът показва изречения за очаквания, които са нови или са изчезнали спрямо предходното тримесечие." } } }, "company": "Apple Inc.", "sector": "Technology", "industry": "Consumer Electronics", "price": 332.2449951171875, "factors": { "1": 36.99833, "2": 31.105587, "3": 2.7615, "4": 45.141983, "5": 65.76218910501403, "6": 10.386899294336397, "7": 8.923453002007216, "8": 29.130939629790603, "9": 31.59521557855856, "10": 35.79672299612973, "11": 35.475102897068396, "12": 33.04737799732832, "13": -2.251175301124742, "14": 2.8188783635145938, "15": 28.382176978247, "16": 48.65291555900202, "17": 33.17295848747812, "18": 27.618604910212223, "19": 35.97916126668995, "20": 29.279405684809873, "21": 75.81704043157956, "22": 174.86064584378772, "23": 35.88955603619854, "24": 79.98502143484323, "25": 1.2994702720457854, "26": 38.6428821266177, "27": 31.10087763456385, "28": -74.85418210475548, "29": 3112153.3333333335, "30": 1.138012875203599, "31": 0.8932929222186667, "32": 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